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30 Aug. 2023

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Will everyone go to war? How will the volume of mobilization in Ukraine change in the near future?

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Will everyone go to war? How will the volume of mobilization in Ukraine change in the near future?

Mobilization activities in Ukraine have been ongoing since the full-scale invasion of russia. Thousands have been called up for war since then, but it is important to understand that this is not enough to liberate all the occupied territories. Find out what wave of mobilization is taking place in Ukraine today and whether there is a shortage of soldiers in the Armed Forces

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Since the beginning of russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has been under general mobilization. Every three months, the country's president extends the mobilization measures, and from time to time, heated discussions unfold around this topic. Let's find out how mobilization is currently going on in Ukraine and whether the volume of conscription of persons liable for military service will change in the near future. 


It's no secret that the Ukrainian army also suffers casualties at the front every day, although these figures are not publicized. As intense fighting continues in the south and east of the country, the military faces fatigue and other discomfort, forcing the leadership to rotate, which means that it is important for the army to replenish the reserve with new fighters. 


Since Ukraine's main goal is to liberate all the occupied territory, it is obvious that the fighting will not end "tomorrow," and this probably means that most citizens will still be involved in the military in one form or another, but not necessarily in the hot zones. 


How is mobilization going now? 


Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Yegor Chernov told Novyny.LIVE that all mobilization mechanisms are currently being implemented in accordance with the law and no changes are planned.


He explained that there are four waves of mobilization in Ukraine, but only the second wave of conscription is currently underway.


Regarding the main question of whether everyone will go to war, Chernov said that such a scenario can only occur during the fourth wave.


"It depends on how long this war will last and how many resources will be attracted by russia. There are four stages of mobilization in Ukraine. And the fourth one assumes that all men go to war. Now we are in the second stage of mobilization. But if the country is in danger and there is a real threat of losing its statehood, then everyone will go, as it was on February 24. I think it is the duty of every man to defend his own country. However, today we are not talking about this option," he said.




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What can we expect from the mobilization in the coming months?


Passions around the mobilization issue have been heating up since the statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the military command had asked him to allow more people to be mobilized for the war.


However, at the time, the president did not give a clear answer as to whether this request would be approved. 


At the same time, later on, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov also spoke about this issue. During a conversation with journalists, he assured that Ukraine is unlikely to increase the volume of mobilization in the army in the coming months.


"I do not think that in the coming months there will be an issue of increasing mobilization," he said.


"The mobilization plan approved by the Verkhovna Rada has not yet been implemented. In a good way. This means that we do not need to announce an increase in the number of troops," the minister added.


In other words, according to high-ranking officials, mobilization activities are taking place in the same way as they have been since the beginning of the full-scale war.


What is the reason for the panic around the topic of mobilization?


The narratives "everyone will serve" and "Ukraine does not reckon with resources" are obvious russian propaganda injections through social media, which can be seen most often on social networks such as Telegram, Facebook, and TikTok. We have previously written that these platforms make it easy to spread information without sufficient fact-checking. Many social media users tend to believe everything they see in their news feeds and do not always turn to trusted sources.


In addition, on August 29, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine warned citizens that russia had approved the themes of a new stage of information warfare against Ukraine. You may be surprised (not), but the first item on this list is the topic of "mass mobilization."


According to intelligence sources, in the near future, the russian disinformation system will focus on dispersing such fake news among Ukrainians:


- "all Ukrainians without exception, regardless of gender, age, or health status, will be subject to mobilization."

- "mobilization will apply to minors". 


So do not fall for enemy provocations, read only official sources and, most importantly, do not forget that the Ukrainian military continues to win victories on the battlefield with blood and sweat.


We remind you! Another category of Ukrainian citizens may be exempted from mobilization during martial law. We'll tell you who can be granted a deferral and what the current conscription rules are here.




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