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26 Jun. 2023

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What does Prigozhin's rebellion against the russian government mean for Ukraine?

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What does Prigozhin's rebellion against the russian government mean for Ukraine?

According to experts, the justice march led by Yevgeny Prigozhin is only the beginning of irreversible changes in russia. Find out how the conflict between the Wagner leader and the russian Ministry of Defense will affect Ukraine and the developments at the front

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The possibility of a civil war in russia did not prevent it from launching another massive missile attack on Ukrainian cities on the night of June 24. However, many experts agree that Prigozhin's rebellion not only exposed russia's weaknesses, but also created the preconditions for changes in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the entire front line. 


Read more about the weaknesses of russia and putin in particular that were exposed by the military coup attempt and why the world agrees that this is only the beginning of irreversible changes in russia here.


Temporary withdrawal of troops: the threat of a collapse of russian defense


While moscow was preparing for the Wagnerian invasion, thousands of russian troops were withdrawn from their positions along almost the entire front line in Ukraine to be redeployed to the russian capital. This means that part of the russian army has actually been withdrawn from the front, which greatly facilitates the advance of Ukrainian forces in the temporarily occupied territories. This is confirmed not only by the words of experts, but also by the successful de-occupation of several settlements in the Donetsk region. It is also important that some of them have been under occupation since 2014.


In addition, we are aware of cases of arbitrary abandonment of positions by the russian occupiers who expressed a desire to join the Wagnerian "march of justice". It is not known where they are today.


Undermined morale and unwillingness to die for putin


If russia were guided by logic, then at the first threat of a military coup within the state, it would have to stop hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw all its fighters from the front in order to "save and protect the state." putin claims that this is exactly what the russian army is doing in Ukraine, but it is unclear why the occupiers continued to hold the line in Ukraine when there was a real threat of russia's collapse.


That is, the russian army found itself in a situation that not only resonates in terms of logic, but also destroys the idea of russia itself and its "power." After all, the occupiers saw with their own eyes the weakness of putin, who fled moscow, and the collapse of the fairy tale of the "great and invincible empire." Instead of "taking Kyiv in 3 days," Wagner's men reached moscow in less than a day.




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Moreover, the calm return of Prigozhin's mercenaries to their field camps after they had stormed russian cities and destroyed several aircraft along with 13 crew members severely undermined the morale of the occupiers. After all, there was no punishment for those who went against the government, which means that "anyone can take up arms and march on moscow."


Prigozhin's statements about the lies of russian officials about threats from Ukraine and the reasons for the start of the SMO also played a role. In other words, the russian army has become entrenched in the idea that the war is pointless, and most importantly, that their deaths for putin and russia are pointless.


How can the course of the war in Ukraine change after Prigozhin's mutiny?


The withdrawal of russian troops, the undermined morale, the lack of punishment for the Wagnerites, the weakness of putin and russia in general, and the unwillingness to die for a fictional empire have all confused and destabilized the russian army. Its attention has been and remains focused on internal events, and therefore the russian defense has already begun to crumble in several areas of the front.


In addition, experts emphasize that Prigozhin's rebellion was the beginning of the inevitable fall of the putin regime. After all, the number of people dissatisfied with the dictator has grown rapidly, and among them are not only security forces, but also officials and oligarchs. Therefore, the confused and angry occupiers, who are now suffering from the successful counteroffensive actions of the Armed Forces, may turn around and go to eliminate the "real threat to the existence of russia" in the face of the country's military leadership and putin in particular.


We remind you! The horrific terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which russia is planning to carry out, will have irreparable consequences for the whole world. Read about the state of the nuclear power plant and what threatens the world as a result of the explosion in our previous article.




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