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24 Jun. 2023

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Civil war in russia: a military coup or a decree from Prigozhin?

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Civil war in russia: a military coup or a decree from Prigozhin?

On June 23, the commander of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused the russian Defense Ministry of destroying the mercenaries' rear positions and declared war on the country's leadership. Find out what experts say about the latest developments in russia and the possible consequences of a military coup

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Throughout the full-scale invasion, Yevgeny Prigozhin criticized the actions of the russian authorities and publicly spoke about the failures at the front and the russian military leadership. However, on the evening of June 23, the conflict between the aggressor country's defense ministry and the Wagnerites reached its peak.


What is known about the latest developments in russia?


Following Prigozhin's statement about russia's strike on the rear positions of its mercenaries, 25,000 Wagnerites began moving in columns toward Rostov on Don. Thus, the leader of the Wagner PMC said that the insidious attack forced them to take the next step and start a war against the russian Ministry of Defense. 


According to russian media reports, Rostov-on-Don and its key facilities, including airfields, were taken without a fight overnight. As of 10 a.m., mercenaries had taken control of the Voronezh region, including the regional center, and were continuing to move toward moscow.


In the evening of June 23, the russian Ministry of Defense and the media called the statements of the Wagner PMC leader an "information provocation." On the morning of June 24, a counterterrorist operation was launched in russia, with a lot of military and municipal equipment on the streets to prevent Prigozhin and his militants from advancing. In his morning broadcast, putin said it was a "stab in the back for the people of russia" and called for not destabilizing the situation in the country. His address also hinted that Prigozhin had betrayed russia and should be eliminated by the russian armed forces.


Is a military coup in russia and putin's elimination possible?


The White House has said that it is closely monitoring the situation, but is cautious and does not want to intervene until it has a clear picture of what is actually happening in russia. In addition, U.S. officials said that Prigozhin's actions are not just his usual rhetoric, and that "something is really happening in russia."


In a morning interview, the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, confirmed that the events taking place in russia are real and not a staged event. According to him, we are now witnessing a "counter-battle of truth with lies" between russian forces.


In addition, putin's administration is in a panic, with some officials claiming that a civil war has begun.




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What consequences could Prigozhin's military mutiny have?


According to the American Institute for the Study of War, Prigozhin plans to overthrow the current russian government and replace the entire military leadership of the country. However, experts doubt that the armed rebellion of the Wagnerians will succeed. After all, the accusations of the russian military leadership, in particular Shoigu, and unnamed oligarchs of deceiving putin and russians have not found support within the dictator's administration.


In addition, analysts argue that the mercenary rebellion is the culmination of Prigozhin's campaign to maintain control over his unit, and he most likely sees the rebellion as the only way to survive in the current conditions in the russian military leadership. 


russian propagandists also commented on current events. For example, according to Igor Girkin (Strelkov), if Prigozhin comes to power in Chechnya, an inevitable uprising will begin, which will lead to the beginning of the "3rd Chechen campaign." Moreover, Girkin stated that "the collapse of the front in Ukraine is very likely." The propagandist predicts the fall of the Donetsk and Luhansk front lines, the entry of Ukrainian forces into Crimea and the beginning of the collapse of the russian federation, and in the bloodiest way possible - "without rules and laws."


The American Institute for the Study of War also confirms the inevitable impact of Prigozhin's rebellion against the russian Defense Ministry on the war in Ukraine. After all, the already captured Rostov on the Don is perhaps the most important command and control center of the russian army.


So, at this stage, we can definitely say that Prigozhin has indeed crossed the "red line." And his constant rhetoric against the military leadership of the russian federation, represented by Shoigu and Gerasimov, has gained unprecedented strength and has moved on to concrete actions. 


However, we must remember that the leader of the Wagner PMC, in any case, represents the interests of the russian federation, and could not have created a 25,000-strong private army on his own and been the only full-fledged manager in this system. Moreover, the kremlin authorities have always supported and protected the interests of the Wagnerites. Therefore, there is no doubt that all the events on the territory of russia can be artificially created to divert attention from other important events on the frontline.


But according to experts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a good chance to take control of the situation along the entire front line. After all, while the russian army is disoriented and its attention is drawn to internal events, Ukrainian forces have the opportunity to deal the maximum blow to the occupiers.


We remind you! The horrific terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which russia is planning to carry out, will have irreparable consequences for the whole world. Read about the current state of the nuclear power plant and what threatens the world as a result of the explosion in our previous article.




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