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13 Okt. 2023


Offensive in eastern Ukraine, Avdiivka: why has russia intensified its assaults and does it have a chance to encircle the city?

Der Weg zum Sieg


Offensive in eastern Ukraine, Avdiivka: why has russia intensified its assaults and does it have a chance to encircle the city?

The UAF are advancing in southern Ukraine and near Bakhmut, but russia has decided to use perhaps the last opportunity to slow down Ukraine's offensive. Find out what's happening on the front line near Avdiivka and what experts say about russian assaults

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Avdiivka is one of the last Ukrainian army fortifications on the old front line from the 2014 ATO. It is also the closest Ukrainian army foothold to occupied Donetsk. It is about 12 kilometers from the city center to the suburbs of the regional center.

For almost 10 years, Avdiivka has become a real outpost of the Ukrainian army, and no matter how many times the occupiers tried to break through the defense on this front line and enter Avdiivka, all attempts failed. And today, the occupiers are once again trying to storm the outskirts of the city, losing a huge amount of manpower and equipment.

What goals does the russian army pursue and what prospects do experts talk about - let's find out in the article.

Map of the war in Ukraine: has russia captured any territories near Avdiivka?

On October 10, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that russian troops had launched an offensive along almost the entire eastern front line, but the largest number of the russian horde had stormed near Avdiivka. 

According to Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the city's military administration, the situation in the town is very tense, as explosions have been going on in the town since the beginning of the russian offensive, and russia is shelling Avdiivka with all available weapons and equipment, including Grad, cannon artillery, mortars and aircraft. In addition, an incredible amount of manpower has been thrown into the offensive: "They are coming from all directions, there are a lot of them," says Barabash.

Where are the russians storming Avdiivka from?

It is noted that the russians are attacking Ukrainian positions in a semicircle - from Vodiane to Krasnohorivka. According to military observer Oleh Petrenko, the assaults took place in the direction of Berdychi and Stepove in the north, Severne and Tonenke from the area of Opytne, as well as northwest of Krutaya Balka and south of Vesele.

Photo: screenshot from

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, russia has sent several dozen pieces of equipment and about three battalions into the battle near Avdiivka, which is more than a thousand soldiers.

In turn, russian propagandists and "military" telegram channels have begun to force calls for a new "Avdiivka cauldron" and claim that the russian army has already advanced and taken positions in several areas. According to the report of the General Staff of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled more than 18 enemy attacks and did not lose a single line of defense.

It is noted that the enemy suffered almost 70% of the losses reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces: more than 112 pieces of military equipment and more than 750 occupants.

Bridge between Yasynuvata and Horlivka blown up

According to the advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andriushchenko, a bridge between Yasynuvata and Horlivka, which is logistically important for the occupiers, was blown up. Ukraine's General Staff has not yet confirmed this information, but the destruction of this road is a significant blow to russian logistics, as they used it to quickly deploy forces and supply their group near Avdiivka.

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Why russia is advancing near Avdiivka: ISW report and Ukrainian experts' opinion

According to Oleksandr Stupun, spokesman for the Joint Press Center of the Tauride Defense Forces, the russians need at least some victories at the front. And if at the beginning of the large-scale invasion Avdiivka was seen by the enemy "as something insignificant, today the capture or encirclement of Avdiivka is perhaps the greatest thing they can achieve at this stage."

At the same time, experts from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the russian army's assaults on Avdiivka will likely lead to broader operational or strategic victories, as the city is a well-fortified and protected Ukrainian stronghold. 

In addition, russian troops already control critical sections of the N20 Donetsk-Konstantinivka-Kramatorsk-Slaviansk highway and other roads that run near Avdiivka, so a hypothetical capture of Avdiivka would not open up new avenues for an offensive on the rest of Donetsk Oblast.

Thus, the occupiers' attempts to surround the city or enter its outskirts are unlikely to succeed and will likely only result in even more losses in manpower and equipment. Moreover, the intensification of hostilities in this area of the front does not prevent Ukrainian soldiers from continuing their offensive near Bakhmut in Donetsk region and in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region, as despite the occupiers' attacks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced on both fronts.

However, it is important to remember how much effort is required to liberate every piece of Ukrainian land and repel every enemy attack. We believe in the Victory and the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

We remind you! russia's war against Ukraine is approaching a new important stage that could significantly affect the course of the conflict. The significance and scale of the issues being addressed by Ukrainian defenders today cannot be underestimated. Read more about how the military capabilities of Ukraine and russia have changed as of 2023 in our previous article.

Photo: Reuters

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