The attempted military coup in russia has not yet reached a logical conclusion. Find out why the Wagner leader accepted the kremlin's terms and how the agreement affected the world's perception of putin

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The American Institute for the Study of War analyzed Prigozhin's failed military coup and the consequences of the agreement reached between the President of Belarus and the leader of the Wagner PMC. 

Prigozhin's main condition before the start of the "march of justice" was the removal of Minister Sergei Shoigu from office, but this has not yet happened. Shoigu has already appeared in a video from the russian Defense Ministry, where he allegedly inspected the forward command post of one of the military groups fighting in Ukraine.

In addition, according to some sources, Shoigu's removal from office was not even discussed during the talks with Lukashenko. So why did the Wagner leader accept the kremlin's terms, and what does the fact that an agreement was reached mean?

Why did Prigozhin agree to a deal with moscow?

According to the available information, Prigozhin tried to contact the kremlin on June 24, when the Wagnerites had just started marching on moscow from Rostov-on-Don, but putin refused to communicate. So, as soon as Prigozhin realized that he would not receive support from the kremlin administration, his confidence in his own actions and the prospects for his armed rebellion dissipated. Therefore, moscow's offer to negotiate with Lukashenko was accepted immediately.

The detailed terms of this agreement were not disclosed, but it is known that the mercenaries were to return to their training camps, and Prigozhin himself was to leave for Belarus. However, the current whereabouts of the Wagner leader are unknown, and the Belarusian side has not made any statements regarding the arrival or whereabouts of Prigozhin. In addition, information has surfaced that the promise to "drop charges against the organizer of the uprising" was not kept, and the case of the attempted military coup is still being considered.

So we can conclude that Progozhin not only failed to achieve the goals of the "march of justice," but also did not receive any of the security guarantees that were discussed during the negotiations.

What will putin do with the mercenaries and Prigozhin?

The future of Wagner's men is not fully understood, as the fact that they returned to their field camps with all their military equipment and putin's statements that they could sign a contract with the russian Defense Ministry indicate that russia intends to retain at least some of the Wagner PMC personnel. At the same time, refusing to sign the contract opens up only two options for the mercenaries: home and the territory of Belarus. 

It is also unclear why Lukashenka needs Prigozhin and several thousand Wagner men, since the deployment of a military group in Belarus is unlikely to prevent an opposition uprising against the current government or the russian army. However, by deploying mercenaries on his territory, Lukashenko risks facing another military uprising, which is unlikely to be suppressed. After all, during the first uprising, opposition forces and those seeking to clear the territory of Belarus from the russian army became particularly active. And the Wagnerians may, on the contrary, contribute to this process by ending their "march of justice."

In addition, the fate of Prigozhin himself is also unclear. Some analysts emphasize that putin will not forgive the betrayal and will eliminate the Wagner leader by any means necessary. Other experts say that Prigozhin's "punishment" will be a point of no return, leading to another rebellion against the putin regime. Not only the country's power bloc, but also oligarchs and some regional elites may join it, as putin has demonstrated his weakness and actual inability to govern the country.

Read more about the preconditions for the civil war in russia and the weakness of the russian dictator here.

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Why did putin lose to Prigozhin anyway?

According to recent reports in the russian media, the process of replacing Sergei Shoigu with the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, has begun in russia. However, this information has not yet been confirmed by Western analysts or russian authorities. In addition, any replacement in russia's military leadership would mean that Prigozhin has achieved his goals and, accordingly, has defeated putin.

The second important aspect is that Prigozhin's failed coup has dispelled the perception of world leaders about the russian dictator. Moreover, even some state media began to doubt putin's authoritarianism and competence, questioning not only his determination and leadership qualities, but also the expediency of the war in Ukraine.

After all, instead of coming out to the people at such a crucial moment and demonstrating his resilience and steadfastness, putin made dubious statements and then fled moscow. At the same time, many questions remained unanswered. Why did the russian FSB fail to foresee the military coup and fail to stop it on its own? Why did the residents of Rostov and Voronezh regions greet the Wagnerians so enthusiastically and who are they going to applaud next time? Why did putin publicly "forgive the betrayal" and how does he now plan to regain his authority? How does russia's shattered power bloc plan to stabilize and prevent the very likely future uprisings?

However, all these questions should only concern russia and putin in particular. After all, the most likely prospect for russia is to increase the chaos inside the country to an irreparable scale. And for Ukraine, this is the right moment to strike a decisive blow on the battlefield.

We remind you! According to experts, the justice march led by Yevgeny Prigozhin is only the beginning of irreversible changes in russia. We told you how the conflict between the Wagner leader and the russian Ministry of Defense will affect Ukraine and the unfolding events at the front in our previous article.

Photo: Reuters

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