How many people live in Ukraine now, and how has the population changed since the outbreak of full-scale war?

The demographic situation in Ukraine has undergone significant changes since February 24, 2022, the beginning of russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Find out more about how many people currently live in the country, how the war has affected births, deaths and migration, and what are the forecasts for the future population of Ukraine

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Since the beginning of the full-scale russian invasion, Ukraine has been experiencing a serious demographic crisis. The war has led to massive migration, increased mortality, decreased fertility, and significant changes in the territorial distribution of the population.

Currently, accurate population estimates are difficult, as the last census was conducted in 2001, and the fighting and occupation of some territories prevent accurate data collection.

Demographic realities in 2025: How many people live in Ukraine?

At the beginning of 2025, the population of Ukraine is estimated at about 31 million people, including the territories temporarily occupied by russia.

For comparison, in 2021, before the start of the great war, this figure was approximately 41 million people. Thus, in three years, the population has decreased by about 10 million.

According to Ukrainian and international experts, as of 2024, approximately 29 million people live in the government-controlled territory of Ukraine, which is confirmed by government sources.

The main reasons for the population decline are.

1. Mass migration

Since the beginning of the war, millions of Ukrainians have gone abroad in search of safety. According to the UN, as of 2024, 6.9 to 8 million Ukrainians are abroad. Most of our citizens were accepted by the countries of the European Union, in particular:

Poland - more than 1.5 million

Germany - about 1.1 million

Czech Republic - about 500 thousand

Italy - about 350 thousand

Spain - more than 200 thousand.

At the same time, some Ukrainians have already integrated in new countries, found jobs and do not plan to return in the near future.

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2. Deaths due to the war

According to official and expert estimates, the number of civilian and military deaths during the war is estimated at hundreds of thousands. The exact figures remain classified, but the high mortality rate among the military and civilians is a significant factor in the demographic decline.

In addition to direct combat casualties, the mortality rate is also affected by deteriorating medical care, stress, depression, deteriorating living conditions, and problems with access to medicines and treatment.

3. Declining birth rate

Even before the war, Ukraine faced a low birth rate, but in 2022-2024, the situation worsened significantly. Many families postpone having children because of the war, financial instability, and uncertainty about the future.

Statistics show that in 2023, there were 265 deaths per 100 births in Ukraine, and in the first half of 2024, this figure rose to 286 deaths per 100 births. For comparison, in pre-war 2019, this ratio was 188 deaths per 100 births.

What about the population in the occupied territories?

Parts of the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, including Crimea, are currently under occupation. According to Ukrainian demographers:

About 2.4 million people live in the occupied Crimea, although a significant part of this population is russians who were relocated to the peninsula after 2014.

Between 1.2 and 2.5 million Ukrainians remain in the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions controlled by russia.

Russia is pursuing a policy of forced resettlement, taking some Ukrainians inland, while populating the occupied territories with its own citizens.

Are there any chances to return emigrants?

The Ukrainian government is considering various programs to return citizens from abroad, including:

- Mobilization reservation offers for specialists in critical industries.

- State initiatives for employment and housing.

- Simplification of bureaucratic procedures for the return of IDPs.

However, the main challenge is the lack of trust in the state apparatus and fears of forced mobilization. Many men who have gone abroad are unlikely to return as long as active hostilities continue.

What are the forecasts for the future?

The demographic situation in Ukraine remains critical, and without an active policy to support the birth rate, encourage the return of the population and rebuild the country, the population will continue to decline.

The Ukrainian government has adopted the Demographic Development Strategy until 2040, but without dedicated funding, its implementation remains in question.

To stabilize the situation, the following are needed:

Programs to support young families and the birth rate (financial incentives, affordable housing, support for mothers).

Providing jobs and creating comfortable conditions for Ukrainians to return from abroad.

Reconstruction of the destroyed regions for the return of internally displaced persons.

Real social guarantees for war veterans and victims of hostilities.

Ukraine has lost at least 10 million people during the three years of war due to migration, hostilities, and the demographic crisis. Today, approximately 31 million people live in the country, and about 29 million live in the government-controlled areas.

If the war drags on, population losses may increase even more, and some Ukrainians who have left may not return. Therefore, demographic policy should become one of the key priorities of the state in the postwar period.

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