Europe expects a migration boom after the end of the war in Ukraine: what is the reason?

Many Ukrainians are likely to come to Poland after the end of the war in their homeland due to economic instability, lack of development opportunities and low levels of social support. Find out about the main reasons for migration, its potential scale and consequences for European countries

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After the war in Ukraine ends, Europe, especially Poland, may face a new wave of Ukrainian migration.

According to experts, more than 1 million Ukrainian citizens may come to Poland in search of better living and working conditions.

The main reasons for the possible migration boom are economic instability, lack of opportunities for professional development and low level of social support in Ukraine.

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Ukrainian workers and the Polish economy

Ukrainians already play a key role in the Polish economy. According to Deloitte analysts, in 2023, their contribution to Poland's GDP ranged from 0.7% to 1.1%. They take jobs in such critical industries as construction, logistics, and services.

Polish employers are interested in attracting Ukrainians because of language and cultural proximity, which simplifies the integration process.

According to Krzysztof Inglot, founder of Personnel Service, Poland remains the main destination for labor migrants from Ukraine. 43% of respondents said they plan to return to work in Poland, and 10% want to settle there permanently.

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Main reasons for migration

A study conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center shows that after the end of the war, one in four Ukrainian men and one in five women are considering emigration. The main reasons are:

Lack of opportunities for professional development - 30%.

Threat to life due to the war - 29%

Insufficient social support from the state - 29%.

The level of migration sentiment is particularly high among young people: 33% of respondents aged 18-29 plan to move abroad. With increasing age, the level of emigration sentiment decreases: among people aged 30-39, 27% want to leave, in the age group of 50-59, this figure drops to 16%, and among people over 60 - to 9%.

Geography of future migration

Residents of the eastern regions, which have suffered the most from the war, are most likely to emigrate - one in four Ukrainians from these regions plans to leave. In the southern regions, this figure is 12%.

As for destination countries, Poland remains the leader among Ukrainians, but many respondents also consider other countries:

Germany - 30%.

Canada and the USA - 21.3%

Belgium and the Netherlands - 12.8%

Czech Republic - 9.1%.

Great Britain - 8.5%.

Scandinavian countries - 7.3%.

The end of the war in Ukraine will not automatically mean that all refugees will return home. The economic situation, destroyed infrastructure, and uncertainty about the future are pushing many Ukrainians to seek a better life abroad. European countries will have to adapt their migration policies to cope with the potential increase in migrants from Ukraine.

Poland, Germany, Canada and other countries popular with Ukrainians are already considering possible scenarios. On the one hand, Ukrainian workers will help to compensate for labor shortages in some industries, but on the other hand, this will pose a serious challenge to European social security systems.

Europe should prepare for a new stage of Ukrainian migration, which could significantly affect its labor market and economy in the coming years.

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