What will gasoline prices be like in Ukraine in 2025: forecasts and key factors

In 2024, Ukraine saw an increase in gasoline and diesel prices. In particular, many factors influenced the price. Find out more about why gasoline and diesel prices in Ukraine may rise to UAH 4 per liter next year

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Fuel prices have always been a hot topic for Ukrainians. It not only affects the budget of every driver, but also becomes an important economic indicator that affects all spheres of life.

Rising fuel prices can increase transportation costs, which automatically increases the cost of goods and services for the end user.

According to forecasts, fuel prices may increase by UAH 4 per liter from the beginning of 2025. Experts point to several key factors that will lead to this increase.

Let's consider what gasoline prices may be in 2025 and what will influence their formation.

Fuel prices in 2024

According to the A-95 Consulting Group, the average price of A-95 gasoline as of the beginning of 2024 was 51.42 UAH/l, and diesel fuel - 51.44 UAH/l. By the end of the year, prices rose: On December 26, a liter of A-95 gasoline cost UAH 55.53 and diesel fuel cost UAH 52.44. This growth was the result of both global trends in the oil market and domestic factors, such as higher excise taxes.

Factors that will influence fuel prices in 2025

In 2025, several key factors may affect the cost of fuel:

1. Global oil prices. EIA forecasts indicate a possible increase in global oil production. This may stabilize oil prices and, consequently, oil products, which will help to curb sharp fluctuations in fuel prices in Ukraine.

2. Legislative initiatives. Starting from September 1, 2024, a gradual increase in the excise tax on fuel came into effect in Ukraine. From the beginning of 2025, excise rates will increase:

- On gasoline: from EUR 242.6 to EUR 271.7 per ton.

- On diesel fuel: from 177.6 to 215.7 euros per ton.

- For autogas: from 165 to 193 euros per ton.

This will lead to a rise in fuel prices by about UAH 1.5 per liter.

3. Introduction of an advance income tax for gas stations. The new tax may affect the operations of less profitable gas stations, especially in rural areas. According to fuel market expert Leonid Kosyanchuk, such an advance tax is fixed and does not take into account sales volumes, which may lead to the closure of small gas stations and, as a result, higher prices.

4. National currency exchange rate Ukraine imports about 85% of its petroleum products, which makes the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar and the euro a critical factor in price formation. Experts predict that the hryvnia exchange rate may weaken due to the economic consequences of the war.

5. Seasonality and demand. Typically, March-April sees a rise in diesel prices, which subsequently affects gasoline. Increased demand during this period may contribute to short-term price increases.

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Expert forecasts

Hennadii Riabtsev, Chief Research Fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, notes that fuel prices in 2025 will depend on:

- The cost of petroleum products at the border.

- The national currency exchange rate.

Mr. Ryabtsev predicts that oil prices may decline, which, in turn, will affect the price of petroleum products. However, the weakening of the hryvnia may offset this positive effect. In addition, unforeseen problems are likely to arise due to the war, which could further affect the fuel market.

Possible mitigation of price increases

Although the outlook is generally pessimistic, there are several factors that could slow growth:

- Declining global oil prices. Dmytro Lyoushkin, founder of the Prime logistics group of companies, suggests that a drop in oil prices by $5-7 per barrel could reduce the cost of fuel in Ukraine by 1-2 hryvnia per liter. However, the expert estimates the probability of such a scenario at only 50%.

- Purchase of large volumes of fuel. Amid the expected increase, the market may actively accumulate stocks, which will stretch the price increase over time. As a result, the first significant increase may occur only by mid-February, when seasonal demand starts to grow.

Overall, in 2025, the Ukrainian fuel market will face price increases due to new tax initiatives, the introduction of minimum stocks, and higher excise taxes. At the same time, some external factors, such as oil prices or actions of market participants, may temporarily stabilize the situation. Drivers should be prepared for higher fuel prices and plan their spending accordingly.

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We remind you! In 2025, changes are expected to strengthen the protection of all road users. Although the cost of MTPL insurance will increase slightly, vehicle owners will receive much better insurance coverage and convenient service.

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