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When is Ukraine's counteroffensive: data leak and experts' predictions

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When is Ukraine's counteroffensive: data leak and experts' predictions

The Ukrainian military is ready to strike a decisive blow against the russians in the occupied territories. Find out more about what high-ranking officials say about the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive and when it might start

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The Ukrainian army's long-awaited counteroffensive is set to begin soon. Not only Ukrainians, but also Western allies, are pinning their hopes on a successful offensive. Let's take a look at what to expect from the counteroffensive and when it might start.


For several months now, the Ukrainian defense forces have been preparing to deliver what could be the decisive blow in the war. Preparations for this stage of the war have been going on for a long time, at least since the end of last year, when the first countries decided to provide Ukraine with heavy weapons, such as tanks and armored personnel carriers.


It is worth mentioning that in December last year, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny, gave a high-profile interview to the British publication The Economist, in which he announced a resource "order" for the Ukrainian army - 300 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 howitzers. The West has partially fulfilled it, but it is difficult to talk about the full list of desired resources.


Despite the lack of weapons, Ukraine still wants to show its courage and desire to liberate the occupied territories. In addition, we should not forget the numerous promises made by the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, that the Ukrainian army will liberate Crimea in 2023.


When will Ukraine launch the long-awaited counteroffensive?


In order to understand when exactly the Ukrainian army will start the campaign, it is necessary to analyze several factors - troop readiness, combat reserve, and weather.


The first two factors can be said to be positive! Ukrainian soldiers are ready to attack, and the mobilization has paid off in terms of manning the reserve. So the only one left is the weather.


Weather conditions play a huge role in warfare when we are talking about offensive operations where troops use heavy equipment. In this case, it is important that the ground is hard and dry. Currently, Ukraine is experiencing heavy rains that are turning fields and steppes into a "mud bath." According to weather forecasters, this weather will continue for at least a few more weeks, so a counteroffensive is unlikely to be launched during this period.


What are the dates mentioned in the media?


The Western media, which everyone is so used to trusting, say that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will begin in mid-April or early May. However, Ukrainian officials are more cautious with their predictions.  


For example, recently, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would strike in the summer. And National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov initially said that Ukraine would decide on a counteroffensive at the last minute. However, he later noted that "the Ukrainian counteroffensive is happening every day," and therefore there is no need to wait for magic dates.


Also, in his latest address, President Zelenskyy assured that preparations for the Armed Forces' counteroffensive are going to the maximum. 


Is Ukraine's counteroffensive in jeopardy after the Pentagon Papers leak?


As you know, there was a scandalous story in the United States about the leak of classified data from the Defense Department, which, in particular, contained information about the Ukrainian counteroffensive. After studying it, analysts unanimously say that the data that was leaked online will not affect Ukraine's plans.


The same opinion was expressed by Ukraine's chief intelligence officer, Budanov.


In his opinion, "there is no risk" that this issue will harm relations between Ukraine and the United States, nor that it will affect the results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.


In addition, speaking about Ukraine's attack plans, Budanov did not predict their outcome. However, he did admit that the success of this offensive is essential not only for the Ukrainians, but also for their allies who supply them with equipment and ammunition.


Ukrainian soldiers are defending our country every day with all their might, and it is very important that the support of the society for the soldiers continues not only in times of successful operations. So now the Ukrainian people must unite in one fist and make every effort to donate and help the army.


We remind you! Despite the war, world leaders and celebrities continue to visit Ukraine. However, now that the country has a ban on air travel, guests have to travel to Ukrainian cities in elite Ukrzaliznytsia trains. Read more about how world leaders travel by rail and what their preferences are in our article.




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