How many Ukrainians believe in victory by 2024: survey results
Predictions from experts and the military about when the war will end vary. Find out more about the percentage of Ukrainian citizens who believe that the war will end with our victory by 2024
According to a survey conducted by the Razumkov Center, the vast majority of Ukrainians, namely 93%, believe in Ukraine's victory over russia. Only 3.5% of respondents do not believe in the victory.
This shows that people's opinion about the results of the russian invasion has not changed since the last poll, which was conducted in August 2022.
How was the survey conducted among Ukrainians?
The sociological survey was conducted by personal communication with respondents, i.e. face-to-face. The sample included 2020 citizens over the age of 18 from all regions of Ukraine, except for those temporarily not controlled by the government of Ukraine or located directly on the contact line.
In which regions of Ukraine do people believe in victory the most?
According to the data obtained, the percentage of Ukrainians who believe in victory has slight differences throughout the country:
- 96% of respondents in the Central region;
- 96% in the Western region;
- 91% in the Southern region;
- 83.5% in the Eastern region.
At the same time, they do not believe that Ukraine will win on the battlefield:
- 9% of respondents from the Eastern regions;
- 3% from the Southern regions;
- 2.5% from the Central regions;
- 1% from the Western regions.
Respondents were also asked what language they speak at home and in everyday life. Yes, we are confident of victory:
- 95% of the Ukrainian-speaking population;
- 87% of Russian-speaking Ukrainians.
In addition, among those who trust Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 96% are convinced of his victory. Among Ukrainians who do not trust the president, 78% believe in victory.
How many Ukrainians believe in victory by 2024?
After the first stage, Ukrainian citizens who believe in the victory over russia were asked whether they agreed that this was possible by the end of this year:
- 50% agreed with this statement;
- 26% said that the victory will be not earlier than in 1-2 years;
- 7% believe it will take 3-5 years;
- 1% of citizens believe that it will take at least 5 years;
- 0.4% believe in victory, but are convinced that they will not see it because the war will last for decades.
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What do Ukrainians consider a victory?
The most popular answers include the following:
- Counter-offensive and pushing russian troops out of the country to the 1991 borders - 47% of those who believe in victory (last year this share was higher - 54%);
- promoting the disintegration of the russian federation or the creation of internal resistance by destroying the russian army - 31% of respondents (compared to last year, this figure has increased by 9%);
- ousting russian troops from all territories except the Crimean Peninsula - 4% (in the previous survey, 8% of respondents agreed with this statement);
- returning to the front line as of 23.02.2022 and ending the war, even if the occupied territories become part of russia - 5%.
The overall share of Ukrainians who associate our victory with the ousting and destruction of the russian army prevails throughout the country:
- 71% in the Southern region;
- 75% in the Eastern region;
- 86% in the Central and Western regions.
How do Ukrainians feel about the possibility of negotiations with russia?
Today, only 13% of Ukrainian citizens agree that negotiations can be an effective way to stabilize the situation and achieve peace. At the same time, 72% of respondents strongly disagree (compared to 17% and 64% respectively last year).
In addition, the vast majority of Ukrainians believe that negotiations can begin only after russian forces are pushed back to the 1991 borders. In different regions of Ukraine, this share ranges from 56.5% to 65%.
We remind you! Earlier we wrote that, unfortunately, war leaves an irreparable mark on the psyche of every person. How and why Ukrainians continue to hold out despite the constant threat of Russia's armed aggression, we explained here.
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