After four months of a large-scale offensive, the Russian army was able to capture Avdiivka. This became possible after the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrew from the city. Find out why Ukrainian forces decided to withdraw from Avdiivka and what to expect next from the occupiers' offensive

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The Ukrainian army has been defending Avdiivka, which is located near Donetsk, for about 10 years. However, due to a massive offensive and "meaty" assaults by the russian occupiers, on 17 February, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to withdraw from the city. Here's a look at how the battle for Avdiivka went down, what it meant for the parties, and what to expect from the russians next.

Russian offensive on Avdiivka

The russian offensive on the city began in October 2023. At that time, the occupiers used a large number of artillery and personnel.

The large-scale battle for Avdiivka lasted about four months. The small town, located a few kilometres north of Donetsk, became the epicentre of fierce fighting. In early February 2024, the situation became critical and the russians almost succeeded in cutting off the supply routes for the city's defenders.

Amidst one of the largest battles, which probably surpassed the battle for Bakhmut in terms of troops, Ukrainian forces faced a huge shortage of ammunition and a shortage of personnel.

The Ukrainian army's withdrawal from Avdiivka was affected by delays in Western aid. It was against this backdrop that the Ukrainian army faced a shortage of artillery shells, air defence missiles and other weapons.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to withdraw from Avdiivka due to a lack of ammunition because of the inaction of Congress, US President Joe Biden said after talking to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to the US president, the consequence of Congress's inaction has led to russia's first notable successes.

Despite the fact that russia managed to capture Avdiivka, the aggressor country's army suffered huge losses in both personnel and equipment. According to the commander of the Tavria operational and strategic grouping of troops, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the enemy's losses during the 4 months of the active phase of the Avdiivka defence operation amounted to more than 47,000 soldiers.

russian losses were as follows:

- personnel - 47,186 people;

- tanks - 364;

- artillery systems - 248;

- armoured combat vehicles - 748;

- aircraft - 5.

Withdrawal from Avdiivka

On 17 February, Ukrainian troops left Avdiivka to avoid encirclement and retreated to new defensive lines, said Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky.

"Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and to preserve the lives and health of the servicemen, I have decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defence on more favourable lines," Syrsky said.

Thus, the Ukrainian military have levelled the front line in this area, which will allow them to continue the defensive operation in more favourable conditions than in Avdiivka.

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Why is Avdiivka important?

According to Western media, Avdiivka is more strategically important to russia than Bakhmut. The ousting of Ukrainians from these places "could cheer up" the russians on the eve of the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion.

However, the active offensive against the small town near Donetsk did not begin until late 2023. According to Ukrainian officials, this is due to the fact that russian dictator vladimir putin has set a goal to capture the city at any cost before the elections in March. Anonymous Telegram channels say that he is now likely to come and record a "victory speech" from Avdiivka or Donetsk.

Therefore, during the attack on the city, the russian command was guided exclusively by the Kremlin's political goals, which cost russia huge losses in the form of 47,000 personnel and hundreds of military vehicles.

At the same time, Avdiivka was important to Ukraine as a major railway junction and industrial centre. It was also a constant potential threat to Donetsk.

Will the occupiers go further?

Two days after the capture of Avdiivka, the russian army continues to attack near the city. However, the occupiers have not yet achieved any significant success.

It is worth noting that earlier analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that if Avdiivka was captured, the russians would not be able to quickly advance and occupy large settlements to the west of the city, as russian troops suffered very heavy losses and would need a long period of recovery and rest to capture new territories.

The Ukrainian Defence Forces have also built good defensive fortifications near the settlements around Avdiivka, which russian troops are also trying to capture, particularly to the west and north of the city.

We remind you! The new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was dubbed the second most important general after Valeriy Zaluzhnyi before his appointment. Read more about Syrskyi's life and work and how he can influence the course of the war here.

Photo: libkos / Instagram

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