The future of Ukrainian refugees in Germany: what will change after the elections?

After the German elections, the policy towards Ukrainian refugees may change significantly. Some parties are proposing to cut social benefits, restrict access to housing and healthcare, as well as employment for Ukrainians. Find out more about who is in favor of maintaining the current support and what scenarios are possible after the formation of a new government

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The elections in Germany could have a significant impact on the lives of refugees from Ukraine. The main issue is the future of social benefits and employment opportunities.

The election programs of the leading parties contain different approaches: from reducing financial assistance to actively engaging Ukrainians in work.

Let's take a look at what changes may await Ukrainian IDPs after the Bundestag elections.

Less money, more work? How the German elections will affect Ukrainian refugees

Conservatives: cutting benefits and incentives to work

The leaders of the race are the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The main message in their program for Ukrainians is “to employ Ukrainian women and men”.

📌 What do the CDU/CSU propose?

🔹 Promoting the recognition of professional qualifications;

🔹 Programs for learning German in the workplace;

🔹 Reduction of social benefits for newly arrived refugees.

The conservatives believe that new Ukrainian refugees should not receive “money for citizens” (Bürgergeld) - a basic allowance of 563 euros per month. Instead, they will receive 460 euros, on par with other refugees applying for asylum.

In addition to the reduction of payments, additional social guarantees may also be canceled:

❌ Housing costs - will no longer be covered by the state, newly arrived Ukrainians will live in special shelters;

❌ Health insurance - only the minimum necessary services;

❌ Instead of money, vouchers (Bezahlkarte) for the purchase of food and basic necessities.

It is worth noting that these restrictions will not affect Ukrainians who are already in Germany - the rules will remain unchanged for them.

Right-wing radicals: even tougher measures

The second position in the ratings is consistently occupied by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party known for its anti-immigrant policy.

📌 What does the AfD propose?

🔹 The abolition of “money for citizens” for all Ukrainian refugees (not only for newcomers);

🔹 Payments of 460 euros instead of 563 euros;

🔹 Preservation of the right to employment.

Although other parties do not plan to form a coalition with the AfD, a situational alliance with the CDU/CSU to strengthen migration policy is possible.

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Free Democrats: integration through work

The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is another party that supports cuts in social benefits. Liberals say that high benefits should not be an incentive for migration.

📌 What does the FDP propose?

🔹 Introduction of a new refugee status with lower benefits;

🔹 Reduction of financial assistance to Ukrainians;

🔹 Instead of payments, incentives for employment.

However, the FDP's chances of getting into the Bundestag remain in question, as the party is balancing on the edge of the 5% electoral threshold.

Sarah Wagenknecht's Union: populism and welfare cuts

The new party, the Sarah Wagenknecht Union (SWU), also advocates for cuts in social benefits for Ukrainians, although it does not mention them separately.

📌 The main theses of the FDP:

🔹 Reducing budget expenditures on social benefits for refugees;

🔹 Fast employment of migrants, including Ukrainians;

🔹 Strengthening control over migration.

The FDP has a good chance of getting into the Bundestag, but it is unlikely that it will be part of the government coalition.

Social Democrats and Greens: no changes

Unlike the conservatives and right-wing parties, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Greens do not plan to change the rules for Ukrainian refugees.

📌 What do the SPD and the Greens propose?

✅ Maintaining the current system of social benefits;

✅ Improving the integration of Ukrainians into the labor market;

✅ Access to social housing and health insurance.

Previously, representatives of these parties have criticized proposals to cut payments to Ukrainians.

What scenarios are possible after the elections?

Taking into account the ratings of the parties, analysts consider two main options for a coalition:

1️⃣ CDU/CSU + SPD or the Greens - in this case, a compromise is possible: a partial reduction in payments for newcomers, but without drastic changes for already residing Ukrainians.

2️⃣ CDU/CSU + FDP or situational support for the AfD - in this case, significant restrictions on social benefits and a stricter migration policy are likely.

What should Ukrainians do in Germany?

🔹 Newcomers: be prepared for changes - reduced benefits, more difficult access to housing and healthcare. The best solution is to find a job as soon as possible.

🔹 For those already in Germany: the rules for you will remain unchanged in the near future, but you should keep an eye on further government decisions.

🔹 All Ukrainians: If possible, learn German and confirm your qualifications to improve your prospects on the labor market.

The best strategy for Ukrainians is to adapt to the new conditions and integrate into German society as quickly as possible.

German migration law is changing, and it is important to know how these changes will affect your status, social benefits, and right to reside. Get legal advice to understand what steps you need to take to maintain your social security benefits, find legal employment, or apply for long-term residency.

We remind you! Germany continues to provide Ukrainians with state support, social benefits and accommodation options. We told you how to find accommodation for Ukrainian refugees in Germany in 2025.

Photo: REUTERS/Lisi Niesner

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