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15 Nov. 2022


Is Crimea coming soon: how the retreat of Russian troops from Kherson will affect the liberation of the occupied territories of the peninsula



Is Crimea coming soon: how the retreat of Russian troops from Kherson will affect the liberation of the occupied territories of the peninsula

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The de-occupation of Kherson by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a new confident step towards joint victory. Despite the fact that the key part of the hostilities is still ahead, from the point of view of confidence and morale, the Ukrainian army finally took the initiative from the russians. Kherson is one of the key strategic cities for both sides, but for Ukraine, control over the city almost completely changes the rules of the game on the southeastern flank. Let's figure out how the liberation of Kherson will help the Armed Forces in the future and how the russian command can react to it.

As for the morale of both armies, the Ukrainian side completely outplayed the russians in this regard. Firstly, this can be attributed to the fact that Kherson was the only regional center that the invaders were able to capture after almost 9 months of full-scale war. Having lost thousands of fighters directly in the Kherson direction, the russian army could not achieve success and retreated. Thus, putin's troops probably do not fully understand what they have to fight for.

Why is Kherson a strategic city for the Armed Forces on the way to Crimea?

Military experts believe that after the liberation of Kherson and the complete clearing of the right bank, Ukrainian troops will not be in a hurry to force the Dnipro to begin the liberation of the left bank. After the control of the city passed into the hands of the Ukrainian army, it is likely that the command will give an order to set up artillery positions for striking the deep rear of the russians on the left bank.

The liberation of Kherson and the right bank of the region will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to significantly increase their firepower on the territory, which acts as a military hub for the occupiers.

In addition, analysts say that control of the city would expand Ukraine's capabilities and weaken russia's ability to hold the territory it still controls, including occupied Crimea.

Logistics problems of the russians in the Crimea direction

The city of Kherson is located approximately 100 kilometers from the intersection of three roads, which russian forces use as a land corridor to supply their groups. However, control over Kherson will allow the Ukrainians to fire on the most important roads located near the Crimean Peninsula.

In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that, taking into account the current conditions, the russian troops will have to look for a new area for the location of the headquarters and warehouses of the BC. According to official sources, Ukraine has Western weapons that can easily hit enemy targets at a distance of up to 130 kilometers.

In this case, the russian command faces a new problem in logistics. Considering the situation with the possible forcing of the Armed Forces of the Dnipro River, the grouping of russian troops on the left bank of the Kherson region will clearly strengthen.

The offensive of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Kherson region. When and what will it bring?

Recapturing the left bank of the Kherson region will be more difficult than the right bank. This is indicated by several factors. And one of them is crossing the Dnipro River, which in the southern direction remained without bridges. In this regard, the Armed Forces of Ukraine has several options to move to the left bank of the Kherson region:

1. force the Dnipro. russian troops also control all crossings and can fire on Ukrainian units during the transfer;

2. to cut off groups of russian troops through the Zaporizhia direction. In this case, the Armed Forces receive a kind of carte blanche - the left bank and the division of the southern and eastern groups of russians and their capture in the Kherson region in a semi-circle;

3. slow breakdown of the rear and supply routes of russian troops. However, this option is in question, since Russian troops control the land corridor along the Donbass.

Given the tactical genius of the Ukrainian command, it can be assumed that the Armed Forces will transfer their forces to the left bank of Kherson. Then the key and, most likely, the final phase of the war begins.

The Ukrainians have the military support of Western countries and an army of several thousand, so the situation in the south of the country will develop faster after the Armed Forces take a course to the left bank of the Kherson region.

Offensive on Crimea. Predictions, odds and what the military says?

The scenarios for the return of Crimea are completely different, but the conclusion of all experts and the military is the same - Crimea will return to Ukraine.

The head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, predicts that an offensive on Crimea is expected as early as next year. According to him, the peninsula will be liberated by military means. The head of GUR does not consider other options. In one of his recent interviews with a Ukrainian publication, Budanov stated that Crimea will not be returned in the summer, but by the end of spring, and maybe even earlier.

Meanwhile, the head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, believes that Ukraine can return Crimea without a fight. He suggests that this may happen due to an internal crisis in russia.

What do they say in the West?

Regarding the liberation of Crimea, the former commander of the US ground forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, expressed his opinion. In his opinion, after the liberation of Kherson, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will start a campaign to return the Crimean Peninsula.

Hodges confidently says that by the end of January, Ukrainian troops will liberate Mariupol and Melitopol, and then the decisive stage of the war will begin - "hike" to the Crimea.

The Crimean peninsula has been under russian occupation for almost 9 years. Ukrainians are looking forward to the return of their native Yalta, Simferopol and other beautiful cities of the peninsula. We believe that the Ukrainian military will be lucky to return home to their native land, where they are waiting for it.

We believe in the Armed Forces! Glory to Ukraine!

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