An unexpected blow to the kremlin: how the arrest warrant for putin could affect russian politics
A chamber of the International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant for putin. Here's how this will affect the russian dictator's future policy
The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague against russian dictator vladimir putin could have a significant impact on russia's foreign policy. Let's see how this could turn out for moscow.
As we know, the russian president has recently been talking a lot about a new "multipolar world." This thesis was one of the "reasons" for the occupying army's attack on Ukraine. But it also means that russia intends to expand its influence to many countries far beyond Europe.
In particular, putin, a man suffering from delusions of grandeur, wants to become one of the leaders of the "multipolar world" he invented, along with the United States and China. To advance this policy, the dictator is likely planning to expand his influence to Latin America, Africa, and post-Soviet states. But it turned out that it's not that simple, and the recently issued arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court may very well hinder this.
Why is the ICC's decision so painful for the Kremlin?
The ICC's decision may undermine putin's plans, as with the warrant in hand, he becomes restricted in his movement and travel, which could help him in his foreign policy.
Theoretically, according to the law, putin could be arrested in 123 countries around the world, making it dangerous for him to travel abroad. Even in countries that putin considers his allies.
For example, the Rome Statute, which obliges russia to comply with ICC rulings, has been ratified by Tajikistan, Brazil, Argentina and most of Africa, which are close to russia.
Traveling abroad was important for russia's political lobbying and domestic propaganda, which could show the russian consumer that moscow still has "friends."
Is putin now incarcerated?
putin's detention seems unlikely, as he will most likely not dare to visit countries where there is at least a minimal risk of arrest. In this regard, he is unlikely to be able to leave the borders of his pseudo-empire.
Also, the russian dictator will now think twice before going to one of his favorite BRICS summits, as it will be held in South Africa, where they have already indicated that they are "aware of their legal obligations" regarding The Hague's decision.
Given all the circumstances, it can be assumed that the decision of the International Criminal Court will deal a serious blow to russia's image even in the countries closest to moscow, which is good news.
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