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12 Apr. 2023

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Closed skies over Ukraine until 2029: experts' opinion on the Eurocontrol forecast

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Closed skies over Ukraine until 2029: experts' opinion on the Eurocontrol forecast

The Ukrainian information space was stirred by the news of a new forecast by Eurocontrol that flights to Ukraine will resume only in 2029. Find out more about whether this is true

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The European organization for the safety of air navigation, Eurocontrol, has published its new seven-year air traffic forecast for the European region. The report states that Ukraine's airspace will likely be closed by 2029.

This news shook the information space of Ukraine and shocked Ukrainians, but is it really true? Details in our material.


Will Ukrainian airspace really be closed by 2029?


Ukraeroruh hastened to reassure Ukrainians and announced that Ukrainian airspace would be opened immediately after the end of hostilities and Ukraine's victory. A detailed analysis was also carried out by the Avianews portal, experts claim that the forecast does not model future changes in the airspace. What is Eurocontrol based on and what is this forecast used for?




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Mechanism for creating Eurocontrol forecasts


One of the divisions of Eurocontrol publishes these seven-year forecasts twice a year. They are used for the annual calculation of fees for air navigation services.

Importantly, the forecast is based on the current situation in the aviation industry. Future changes in the airspace, for example, its unexpected closure, opening, emergence of new routes, are not modeled by the forecast. That is, although Eurocontrol advises airlines not to count on flights over Ukraine until 2029, the company does not rule out that the situation may change quickly.

If you open the previous forecast of Eurocontrol, which was published in the fall of 2022, you can also see there that the organization predicts that the airspace over Ukraine will be closed by the end of the 7-year forecast period - until 2028.

Also important is the fact that Eurocontrol does not use military forecasts or analytics, changes in the economic situation or geopolitical conflicts in its analysis. The forecast is created on the basis of currently available information. When the situation changes, the forecast will be updated. For example, if it becomes safe to resume flights in Ukraine in 2023 or 2024, Eurocontrol will simply adjust its forecast.


Do airlines plan to resume work in Ukraine after the war?


Ukraeroruh reported that Ukraine is fully preparing for the resumption of flights in its airspace. The necessary action plan is developed together with Eurocontrol.

Ukrainian airlines SkyUp and Supernova Airlines have already announced their readiness to resume flights as soon as it becomes safe. Also, the largest European low-cost carrier Ryanair announced that it would return to Ukraine within a week after the resumption of flights.



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