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09 May. 2023

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Why hasn't Ukraine launched a counter-offensive yet?

War
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Way to Victory
Ukraine
Why hasn't Ukraine launched a counter-offensive yet?

The whole world is waiting with bated breath for a counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Find out more about why the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet launched an operation to de-occupy our territories and what to expect from the offensive

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For about a month now, Ukrainians and Western allies have been waiting for the Ukrainian armed forces' counter-offensive, which is about to begin. The rains are over, almost all the weapons promised by the West are in place and the military is probably in position. But at the same time, there is a lull at the front. We find out what's wrong and when the first strikes will take place.


The topic of the AFU counter-offensive is one of the most discussed in the world. Ukraine and the western world are waiting for frontline news.  


At the moment, not only military experts and bloggers, but also officials, are openly discussing the forthcoming offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The last time Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Gavrilov spoke about it was on Sunday 7 May.


At the time, the defense ministry spokesman said that Russia would panic when the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins.


"We will start our counter-offensive, when and where - it does not matter now. (And when it happens — ed.) Russia will panic, you will see a lot of panic," — Gavrilov said in an interview with a Western publication.


Reasons for Ukraine's delayed counteroffensive


There are many hypotheses about the delay of the Ukrainian strike, the most important being the lack of equipment, weather conditions and the readiness of troops.


It is important to note that these are actually important factors for such an expected event, which promises to bring considerable success to the Ukrainian army. But there may be other obstacles that prevent it from starting right away, for example:

  • The readiness and disposition of their own forces;
  • the assessment of the condition of enemy forces;
  • the deployment of the Russians at the front and in the rear;
  • possibility of transferring reserves, etc.


It should also not be forgotten that a successful offensive comes with an unexpected effect. But here too the question arises: how to create a surprise effect if everyone, including the enemy, is aware of the plans?


In this regard, the Ukrainian military is conducting reconnaissance to understand which directions the enemy has weakened the most. It is precisely this that will be the target of the strike.


As we have written before, a number of Ukrainian dignitaries have spoken out about the timing of the start of the offensive. In particular, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said as recently as last month that Ukraine will decide on a counter-offensive at the last moment and "there is no need to wait for magic dates".


What to expect from an offensive by the AFU?


The rf's political goal in the war is still not clear, which cannot be said about the Ukrainian one. Kiev definitely intends to seize the opportunity when the Ukrainian army has western weapons in its hands and the allies' approval for the return of territories by military means.


It is almost the only chance to restore Ukraine's territorial integrity at the time of 1991, as Ukrainian officials, including the head of the Ministry of Defense's The Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, have repeatedly pointed out.


Moreover, it is much more advantageous for Ukraine to wage a maneuver war with deep offensive operations, the aim of which is not only to liberate occupied lands, but also to change the very nature of hostilities. Maneuver warfare is the way Russia abandoned it after its failure at Kiev. And the ongoing war of attrition only serves Moscow's interests.


Also, Western experts believe that Ukraine needs a decisive victory also for political reasons, as Kiev needs to demonstrate its ability to win on the battlefield in order to continue receiving Western military aid, on which the AFU depends.


Despite many predictions about the timing of the offensive, the decision to launch it is certain. And the only one who has the right to do so is the country's military leadership. It is also important that against the background of expectations, Ukrainian society once again rallies into one fist, as victory is obtained by the joint and mechanical actions of all citizens - both at the front and on the home front.


Glory to Ukraine!

Glory to the AFU!


We remind you! With the start of a full-scale war, thousands of volunteers have expressed a desire to fight for their Motherland. But we are talking not only about men, but also Ukrainian women, who continue to fight bravely for freedom. Find out how many women are fighting in the ranks of the AFU and what feats they perform in our previous article on the link.




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