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30 Jun. 2023

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The collapse of russia is no longer a dream, but a reality: how Prigozhin's mutiny changed the world's perception of the likely future of russia

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The collapse of russia is no longer a dream, but a reality: how Prigozhin's mutiny changed the world's perception of the likely future of russia

Prigozhin's military rebellion made world leaders see a different, real russia. Find out what experts predict for the future of russia and how the wagnerian uprising will turn out for putin

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The unexpected and quite exciting events of recent weeks in russia have made the world and the collective West in particular think that their perception of russia was fundamentally wrong, and the future predicted for the country is now almost impossible. 

Moreover, world leaders and governments now call the collapse of russia not a mythical possibility, but a very likely reality, the groundwork for which has already been laid by the leader of the Wagner group.


What did the West not expect?


The collective West considered russia to be a powerful state with a large army and inexhaustible resources, and putin to be an authoritarian leader who posed a real threat to international security. However, the West never expected to see with its own eyes a completely different reality, in which:


● A military mercenary would officially declare a rebellion against the military leadership of the russian federation and march directly on moscow with an armed army of thousands. At the same time, Prigozhin's accusations touched putin personally, and the Wagner leader did not skimp on insulting epithets against the russian dictator.

● The local population will welcome the Wagnerites with applause and shouts, and the actual control over the regions through which the mercenaries were moving will be lost in a matter of hours.

● Wagnerites will be able to move in columns across the territory of the russian federation without any fight or resistance, and in the process shoot down a considerable number of russian military aircraft. 


And finally, the main surprise was that all the participants in the military mutiny "calmly went home", having received security guarantees from putin personally.


Thus, the fairy tale about the authoritarianism of the russian dictator, the stability of the country and the authority of the central government of the russian federation shattered in less than a day.


Dispelling the myth of a great and powerful russia


All these events highlighted the real state of russia. Thus, it turned out that almost nothing remained of the mythical image of the russian federation, which russian propagandists and politicians had been working on for years. And, in fact, the country is one step away from collapse, because the actual state of affairs shows a lack of political stability and support for the government and the president by the local population. Moreover, the rebellion highlighted russia's internal fragility, for which neither the United States nor the EU countries were prepared.


Thus, on Monday, June 26, European leaders began to develop a strategy and action plan in case the instability and fragility of russia lead to the irreversible collapse of the state.


A similar opinion was expressed by British experts, who emphasized the need to prepare for the "sudden collapse of the russian federation" after the failed coup attempt. In addition, the UK made more radical statements and noted that the West lacks understanding of the real state of affairs in russia.


Read more about how Prigozhin's rebellion exposed putin's weakness and actual loss of power here.




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Why is the West afraid of the collapse of russia?


Just a couple of weeks ago, the topic of the collapse of russia was taboo in the vast majority of Western countries and the United States in particular. And this is not surprising, because every statement about russia's instability or weakness was accompanied by moscow's lament that "the West is to blame for everything." Therefore, world leaders tried not to rock the boat.


At the same time, the issue of the fragility of the russian federation is being raised everywhere, and the vast majority of experts give this scenario a positive assessment. After all, this would mean the actual disappearance of a dangerous "empire" that has been terrorizing its "neighbors" for many years. Moreover, the absence of real punishment for the war in Ukraine is likely to lead to new attacks by russia on other countries, and therefore the collapse is the best scenario.


However, for some countries, this path is seen as quite slippery and therefore a cause for concern. In particular, for the United States, the collapse of russia would mean the likely strengthening of China, which is its main strategic competitor. 


The second, but not the least, fear, which causes a lot of discussion among analysts and experts, is that russia is a nuclear power. Therefore, an internal split and the beginning of the division of territories could lead to the uncontrolled use of nuclear weapons and blackmail.


What is the main mistake of the United States?


35 years ago, the United States deliberately ignored the signs of the collapse of the Soviet Union, resisting with all its might a scenario that was already unstoppable. Moreover, US tried to persuade the former Soviet republics not to secede from the union and not to take any drastic steps. 


Today, it is obvious to everyone that the US policy was wrong. That is why the leaders of other Western countries are now actively calling on Washington not to repeat old mistakes and to learn from the situation. After all, history proves that democratic governance within russia is almost impossible, and the scenario of the democratization of certain "fragments of the russian federation" is more likely.


We remind you, U.S. officials have claimed that russian military commanders were involved in Prigozhin's mutiny. Read more about those who knew in advance about the planning of the uprising and the possible impact of this information on the war in Ukraine here.


Photo: PAP/EPA/FRIEDEMANN VOGEL




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