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02 Aug. 2023

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Provocations on the Polish border: Do Lukashenka's intimidation of Wagnerites pose a real threat to Poland?

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Provocations on the Polish border: Do Lukashenka's intimidation of Wagnerites pose a real threat to Poland?

In recent weeks, the number of Wagnerites on the territory of Belarus has increased significantly, as has the number of provocations by Lukashenka. Find out what the mercenaries are trying to achieve with intimidation and how Poland is preparing for possible military threats

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Poland began strengthening its border with Belarus back in 2021, but the main threat to the country then was not military provocations but the number of illegal migrants. According to Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, Lukashenko used illegal immigrants as a hybrid weapon and a way to influence Western countries. However, the deployment of Wagnerites from the war zone in Ukraine to Belarus forced Poland to additionally strengthen its borders with military brigades and equipment.

"We are aware of the threats that exist in the east. We know that the Wagner group has been transferred to Belarus. That is why we have reinforced the east of Poland by transferring military units and equipment from the west: The 12th and 17th Brigades," said Mariusz Blaszczak during his visit to the United States.


Is there a real threat to Poland?


Undoubtedly, the presence of Wagnerites near the Polish border contributes to the growth of tension, and their provocations can lead to an escalation of the situation. However, Western experts believe that there is no real threat. In particular, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Prigozhin's mercenaries do not pose an additional threat to Poland and Ukraine, as they do not have heavy weapons. 

However, the Polish leadership believes otherwise, as heavy equipment and weapons are not needed to carry out provocations and infiltrate migrants into the EU. Prigozhin's campaign is not limited to the Belarusian borders, as "his traces" are found in many countries in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, and the physical location of his mercenaries in Belarus can greatly simplify the illegal entry of immigrants into Europe.


What is known about provocations on the Polish border? 


On August 1, it became known that Belarusian helicopters had crossed Polish airspace. Although Lukashenko is trying to deny these claims, the entry into the airspace of a NATO country cannot be ignored. After all, this tactic may be another test of the "red lines" that will be ignored in the West.

However, the events of August 1 are not the first case of provocations this year. For example, in May 2023, the spokesman for the Minister-Coordinator for Special Services of Poland, Stanisław Żaryn, reported an increase in the number of aggressive attacks by illegal migrants.

"There are repeated attacks on Border Guard patrols protecting the border with Belarus. Attempts to storm the border have become much more frequent. Belarusian and Russian special services are better at organizing and managing foreigners. Functionaries of the special services of the Republic of Belarus and the russian federation are again on the front line," Zharyn wrote on his Twitter page.




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The second serious incident occurred in June of this year. The border guards' car was once again thrown stones and bricks.

Anna Michalska, a spokesperson for the Polish Border Guard, also confirms the growing threat to the country due to the deployment of Wagnerians. According to her, they can help illegal migrants cross the border, in particular, by providing illegal immigrants with transportation, equipment, and tactical support. At the same time, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said during a press conference that the situation is even more dangerous than it might seem at first glance. After all, Wagner's members can not only help illegal migrants under the guise of Belarusian border guards, but also try to cross the border illegally themselves.

In addition, Lukashenka's words that "Wagnerians are asking to go on an excursion to Warsaw and Rzeszow" caused considerable outrage in the West. The President of Belarus said this during his next visit to putin.


How is Poland preparing for provocations by Lukashenko and the Wagnerites?


Because the flow of illegal migrants has not stopped for several years. Poland has been taking appropriate measures for a long time. In particular, by installing physical barriers that cannot be crossed on foot, such as electrified barriers and steel panel fencing in the form of a 5-meter high wall with barbed wire on top.

However, recent events have forced the country to deploy additional forces to the border areas. Thus, in early July, about 2,000 military and 500 police officers arrived at the Belarusian border. In addition, a new military unit was established in the east of the country.


We remind you! Western media are actively reporting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have moved to a new stage of counteroffensive. Read how the situation on the frontline has changed, which settlements have been liberated in recent days, and what indicates a new stage of the Ukrainian offensive in our previous article.


Photo: State Border Guard Service Of Ukraine




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