Icon
Come back

2 min

24 Apr. 2024

4841

The Ministry of Economy has made a forecast for 4 years: what will be the inflation and budget deficit and will the dollar reach 50 UAH?

Popular
War
Finance
Ukraine
The Ministry of Economy has made a forecast for 4 years: what will be the inflation and budget deficit and will the dollar reach 50 UAH?

The Ministry of Economy has published a consensus forecast for the next 4 years, which describes two scenarios: if the war ends in 2024 and if it lasts longer. Read more about experts' expectations for inflation, GDP and unemployment in Ukraine

Take care of insurance for safe entry and stay in Ukraine
Take care of insurance for safe entry and stay in Ukraine
BUY


The Ministry of Economy has published scenarios for the recovery of the Ukrainian economy in its April consensus forecast. The document takes into account two scenarios: one forecast is based on the assumption that the war will end in 2024, and the other - that it will last longer.  


It should be noted that the consensus forecast is an average of the main indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine, calculated on the basis of expert opinions of specialists in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.


Read more about the experts' expectations in the article below.


In this article, we discussed when the war in Ukraine will end, according to the forecasts of Ukrainian and Western experts.


Read how much money Ukraine has spent on weapons since the beginning of the year here.


General assessment of the Ukrainian economy by experts


Most experts believe that Ukraine's economy will grow under both scenarios:

– If the war ends in 2024, real GDP growth will be 5%;

– if the war lasts longer, GDP growth will be 3.5%.


At the same time, experts expect that the main growth will occur in 2026-2027, in particular due to recovery and reconstruction programs. 


However, it is also noted that in 2027, Ukraine's GDP will not reach the level of 2021:

– 91% of the 2021 level for the scenario of the end of the war in 2024;

– 88% for the scenario of a longer war.


Inflation rate in Ukraine according to experts' forecasts


According to experts' estimates for 2024, consumer inflation will be lower than previously estimated (at 8.5% for the year compared to an estimate of 9.1% as of October 2023), but still higher than in 2023.


If the war ends in 2024, inflation will remain at 8.2% in 2025, but if it ends in 2025, inflation will reach 9.2%.




Visit Ukraine on social media: Telegram | YouTube | Instagram | Facebook | Twitter | TikTok




Dollar to 50 UAH? How much will the currency rise in price in Ukraine?


According to preliminary estimates, the dollar may reach UAH 49.60 by 2027. The forecast of the average annual exchange rate is as follows:


– 2024 - 40.33 UAH/USD (but by the end of the year it may reach 41.67 UAH/USD);

– 2025 - 42.70 UAH/USD (but may rise to 44.8 UAH/USD by the end of the year);

– 2026 - 46.22 UAH/USD (but may increase to 46.43 UAH/USD by the end of the year);

– 2027 - 46.37 UAH/USD (but by the end of the year it may increase to 46.68 UAH/USD).


However, these are average figures; if we take into account the maximum values, the dollar may reach UAH 47.80 by the end of 2026.


What will be the budget deficit in Ukraine?


According to experts, the budget deficit will remain high, given the needs of the state (mainly defense and social security), with its further reduction in the medium term.


At the same time, the economy will continue to be critically dependent on the volume of revenues from international partners.


We remind you! Chief Ukrainian intelligence officer Kyrylo Budanov predicts a difficult situation in Ukraine in the coming months. These forecasts are made against the backdrop of russian preparations for an offensive and at a time when russian special services continue a special operation to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. Read what to expect in May and what forecasts American military analysts make in our previous article.


Photo: Depositphotos


Want to know more? Read the latest news and useful materials about Ukraine and the world in the News section.




You may be interested in:


Visit Ukraine Donation - make a good deed and an important contribution to the Victory of Ukraine;

Visit Ukraine Legal advice - comprehensive legal support on entry to Ukraine;

Visit Ukraine Tours - the largest online database of tours to Ukraine for every taste;

Visit Ukraine Merch - choose patriotic clothing and accessories with worldwide delivery;

Visit Ukraine News - get the latest news and updates in our Telegram channel;

Cooperation - cooperation and advertising integrations with Visit Ukraine and Visit World projects.




© 2018-2024, Visit Ukraine. Use, copying or reprinting of materials on this site is permitted only with a link (hyperlink for online publications) to Visit Ukraine.

All rights reserved.

Recommended articles

2 min

Insurance War risk insurance in Ukraine: maximum protection against unforeseen situations

War risk insurance in Ukraine: maximum protection against unforeseen situations

Responsible attitude and reliable protection are the key to a safe stay in Ukraine. Do not neglect your own life and health and take out insurance with maximum coverage on the Visit Ukraine portal. Read this article to find out what we offer and how to take out insurance covering active and passive war risks

23 Apr. 2024

More details

3 min

War The law on mobilisation in Ukraine has come into force: what you need to know about it

The law on mobilisation in Ukraine has come into force: what you need to know about it

The law on mobilisation has officially entered into force. This means that now the rules of conscription into the army have completely changed. Find out exactly what you need to know about the new law

18 May. 2024

More details

2 min

War Chasiv Yar: what is happening at the front and why is it important for Ukraine not to lose the settlement?

Chasiv Yar: what is happening at the front and why is it important for Ukraine not to lose the settlement?

After the occupation of Avdiivka, russian troops received a new goal from their leadership - to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9. Find out why this settlement is a key strategic object in eastern Ukraine and how russia is trying to gain an advantage on the battlefield

18 Apr. 2024

More details

1 min

Documents SE Document temporarily does not issue ready-made documents abroad: details

SE Document temporarily does not issue ready-made documents abroad: details

The State Enterprise "Document" has temporarily suspended the issuance of ready-made documents in its foreign offices. Find out more about the reasons for this and what services you can get

23 Apr. 2024

More details