The electricity situation in Ukraine has deteriorated significantly after the latest russian shelling. Against the background of warm weather, Ukrainians are still feeling the consequences of these attacks. However, cold weather will soon arrive in the country and it is not quite clear what to expect during the winter period. Find out what forecasts experts are giving and what scenarios are being considered in general

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Ukraine's power grid has been severely damaged by massive bombardment by the Russian army. Millions of citizens are forced to live under conditions of severe electricity cuts and constant blackouts.

By the end of the summer, the situation with electricity generation began to improve, but on 26 August, Putin's forces again attacked critical infrastructure. This attack targeted not only small power plants, but also facilities that feed large nuclear power plants. As a result, the electricity situation in Ukraine deteriorated sharply, forcing the power sector to revert to hourly blackout schedules.

It is important to note that the electricity shortage hit Ukrainians in the summer, when homes do not need heating. However, cold weather will soon come to the country, forcing the power system to produce many times more energy to heat homes.

What awaits Ukrainians this winter and what electricity restrictions may be imposed, we tell you with reference to the Disinformation Counteraction Centre and the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine.

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The situation with electricity can develop in several scenarios

Yuriy Korolchuk, an expert at the Institute for Energy Strategies, said that there is both an optimistic and a pessimistic forecast.

Optimistic scenario

According to the optimistic forecast, if 8-9 NPP units operate on a stable basis and the winter is moderate, without severe frosts, it is planned to restore about 3 GW (3000 megawatts) of the 6 GW of damaged capacity.

In this scenario, power outages of up to 12 hours per day are possible.

Pessimistic scenario

A more pessimistic scenario assumes that about 2000 megawatts of capacity can be restored, and the number of NPP units will be 6-7, with a cold winter.

Then the system will be in a crisis situation.

Worst-case scenario

In the worst-case scenario, if Russia continues to attack the Ukrainian energy sector, Ukrainians could spend up to 20 hours a day without electricity and heating this winter.

According to Serhiy Nagornyak, a member of the Verkhovna Rada's Energy Committee, if the temperature drops to -10°C in winter, Ukrainians are likely to have electricity for only 12-14 hours a day, and the rest of the time - about 10 hours - they will be without electricity.

According to the Disinformation Counteraction Centre, it is impossible to completely prevent long-term blackouts for household and industrial consumers, as it is difficult to predict the consequences of possible new Russian strikes or to accurately forecast weather conditions.

If the Russian shelling is less effective, the winter is warm, and the power sector manages to restore or commission a certain amount of new generation, the likely regular blackouts this winter will be as short-lived as possible.

Are Ukrainian regions ready for winter?

According to the Ministry of Infrastructure, as of the beginning of September, the total share of facilities ready for the heating season was 82%. In the rear regions, these figures are higher, while in the frontline areas they are slightly lower. For example, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, it is 79%. The lowest figure is in Kherson Oblast: 54%.

As for Kharkiv region, the region is preparing for the heating season more than in previous years. Thus, the region received UAH 2.5 billion from the state budget to quickly purchase and install the necessary equipment.

We remind you! Ukraine's power grid has suffered the largest attack since the start of the war, resulting in serious damage and emergency blackouts. Read more about the prospects for restoring power supply here.

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