The Ministry of Economy has published a consensus forecast for the next 4 years, which describes two scenarios: if the war ends in 2024 and if it lasts longer. Read more about experts' expectations for inflation, GDP and unemployment in Ukraine

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The Ministry of Economy has published scenarios for the recovery of the Ukrainian economy in its April consensus forecast. The document takes into account two scenarios: one forecast is based on the assumption that the war will end in 2024, and the other - that it will last longer.  

It should be noted that the consensus forecast is an average of the main indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine, calculated on the basis of expert opinions of specialists in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

Read more about the experts' expectations in the article below.

In this article, we discussed when the war in Ukraine will end, according to the forecasts of Ukrainian and Western experts.

Read how much money Ukraine has spent on weapons since the beginning of the year here.

General assessment of the Ukrainian economy by experts

Most experts believe that Ukraine's economy will grow under both scenarios:

– If the war ends in 2024, real GDP growth will be 5%;

– if the war lasts longer, GDP growth will be 3.5%.

At the same time, experts expect that the main growth will occur in 2026-2027, in particular due to recovery and reconstruction programs. 

However, it is also noted that in 2027, Ukraine's GDP will not reach the level of 2021:

– 91% of the 2021 level for the scenario of the end of the war in 2024;

– 88% for the scenario of a longer war.

Inflation rate in Ukraine according to experts' forecasts

According to experts' estimates for 2024, consumer inflation will be lower than previously estimated (at 8.5% for the year compared to an estimate of 9.1% as of October 2023), but still higher than in 2023.

If the war ends in 2024, inflation will remain at 8.2% in 2025, but if it ends in 2025, inflation will reach 9.2%.

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Dollar to 50 UAH? How much will the currency rise in price in Ukraine?

According to preliminary estimates, the dollar may reach UAH 49.60 by 2027. The forecast of the average annual exchange rate is as follows:

– 2024 - 40.33 UAH/USD (but by the end of the year it may reach 41.67 UAH/USD);

– 2025 - 42.70 UAH/USD (but may rise to 44.8 UAH/USD by the end of the year);

– 2026 - 46.22 UAH/USD (but may increase to 46.43 UAH/USD by the end of the year);

– 2027 - 46.37 UAH/USD (but by the end of the year it may increase to 46.68 UAH/USD).

However, these are average figures; if we take into account the maximum values, the dollar may reach UAH 47.80 by the end of 2026.

What will be the budget deficit in Ukraine?

According to experts, the budget deficit will remain high, given the needs of the state (mainly defense and social security), with its further reduction in the medium term.

At the same time, the economy will continue to be critically dependent on the volume of revenues from international partners.

We remind you! Chief Ukrainian intelligence officer Kyrylo Budanov predicts a difficult situation in Ukraine in the coming months. These forecasts are made against the backdrop of russian preparations for an offensive and at a time when russian special services continue a special operation to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. Read what to expect in May and what forecasts American military analysts make in our previous article.

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