In May, russia is preparing a three-layered plan to destabilise Ukraine: what is it all about?
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Ukrainian intelligence has learned about the russians' plan to destabilise Ukraine. The enemy plans to influence the situation by using three different directions. Find out what exactly russia is targeting and what other plans russia's intelligence agency knows about
In May, russia will intensify its efforts to destabilise Ukraine, in particular by using its tactical advantage on the battlefield. The occupiers' plan consists of three layers. Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, spoke about each of them in an interview with The Economist.
According to him, russia's "three-layer" destabilisation plan includes, among other things, a disinformation campaign in Ukraine related to the alleged illegitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose peacetime presidential term is due to end on 20 May, and isolation in the international arena.
In addition, russian efforts will be aimed at undermining Ukrainian mobilisation.
According to Skibitskyi, the third factor is russia's campaign to isolate Ukraine internationally. The intelligence officer said that the occupiers "will stir up the situation in any way possible".
At the same time, the publication reports that the military remains the main factor of destabilisation. It also notes that it will take weeks before the US aid recently approved by Congress reaches the frontline.
The Economist writes that the aid is unlikely to be able to match russia's stockpile of shells or provide effective protection against devastating guided bombs. Therefore, it is expected that the situation on the front line will remain difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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Intelligence has known about russia's plans for a long time
A few months ago, the Intelligence Committee under the President of Ukraine reported that the culmination of the russian operation "Maidan-3" against Ukraine, which the occupiers launched last year, would come in the coming weeks.
As part of the operation, the occupiers want to undermine the situation inside Ukraine. The russians consider mass protests across the country and distrust of the authorities to be its successful outcome.
According to Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukrainian intelligence, in such a situation, it would be very difficult for the Ukrainian military at the front, and there would be a threat to the support of the international coalition.
The goal of the russians inside Ukraine is to demoralise Ukrainians, sow panic among the population, drive a wedge between the military and civilians, and set everyone at odds with everyone, including representatives of the country's political leadership and civil society.
According to the intelligence, the special operation will reach its culmination in March-May 2024. In the coming weeks, the enemy will make every effort to spread narratives destructive to global security and attempt to incite conflicts - both inside Ukraine and in other parts of the world where there is effective support for Ukraine.
We remind you! Despite the difficult situation at the front, the Ukrainian army is trying to improve its position in some areas. In particular, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to advance in the south of Ukraine. We will tell you where the Ukrainians have made progress and where the enemy continues to try to break through the defences of the Defence Forces here.
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