The Return of Ukrainians After the War: Expert Predicts Only 10–15% — What Does This Mean

After the war, only 10–15% of Ukrainian refugees may return home, an expert predicts. Find out how many people will actually return, why most will remain abroad, and how this will affect Ukraine

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Once the war ends, most Ukrainians who have left the country will not be in a hurry to return home. This forecast was made by Vasyl Voskoboynik, head of the Office of Migration Policy. According to him, the return process will be gradual and drawn out, and the number of those who decide to return may turn out to be significantly lower than expected.

Why won’t there be a mass return of Ukrainians right away?

As the expert notes, even after the end of hostilities, one should not expect the immediate return of millions of Ukrainians. People will assess the level of security in Ukraine, economic prospects, living conditions abroad, and opportunities for work and education.

That is why the return process may take several months, half a year, or even a year after the war ends.

How many Ukrainians might return?

According to Vasyl Voskoboynik’s estimate, only 10–15% of citizens currently abroad will return to Ukraine. At the same time, approximately 6.5 million Ukrainians currently reside in Europe, of whom about 4.2 million have temporary protection status.

The expert also outlined more specific expectations for the period following the end of hostilities. According to him, between 200,000 and 1 million people may return within the first two years. The pace of return will depend on economic recovery and security conditions.

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Why might Ukrainians choose to stay abroad?

Among the key factors influencing people’s decisions:

● adapting to life in a new country;

● employment and a stable income;

● access to education for children;

● social benefits and standard of living.

For many Ukrainians, several years of living abroad have fostered new connections and opportunities that will be difficult to leave behind even after the war ends.

In this context, the issue of legalizing one’s stay and properly processing documents becomes crucial. If difficulties arise regarding immigration status or planning for long-term residence, Ukrainians can turn to specialists—for example, through Visit Ukraine, immigration lawyers’ services are available to help navigate residency rules, permits, and rights in various countries.

What does this forecast mean for Ukraine?

These estimates point to a serious challenge for the state—the return of citizens will require not only security but also the creation of attractive living conditions. This involves rebuilding infrastructure, creating jobs, developing the social sector, and ensuring stability and predictability. Without this, a significant portion of Ukrainians may remain abroad even after the war ends.

We remind you! Temporary protection in EU countries has been extended, but a deadline has already been set, and more and more Ukrainians are considering a more stable residency status. Not all countries offer an equally straightforward transition to a residence permit, and conditions can vary significantly depending on your situation. Read how to transition from temporary protection to a residence permit in the EU in our previous article.

Photo: Freepik

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