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31 May. 2026

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Fuel prices in Ukraine: what lies ahead for motorists this summer

Q: What determines the price per litre of fuel at a petrol station?

The final cost to the consumer consists of several basic components. Almost half of the total is the purchase cost of the fuel on the European wholesale market. Approximately a third of the price displayed on the pump is taken up by taxes, including VAT and excise duty. The remainder covers the costs of complex logistics, insurance against risks during transport, and the petrol station network’s own margin, which is necessary to maintain the stations, pay staff wages and generate operating profit.

Q: When will fuel prices fall?

A significant and long-term reduction in prices is only possible if a number of positive economic conditions coincide. The main driver could be a global fall in crude oil prices due to an increase in global production volumes or a decline in consumption. An equally important factor is the strengthening and long-term stabilisation of the Ukrainian hryvnia exchange rate. Drivers also often notice a seasonal drop in demand and, consequently, a slight fall in prices during the winter months, when active agricultural work comes to an end and the overall intensity of road traffic decreases.

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Table of contents

What will happen to petrol and diesel prices in June and July
Why is fuel getting more expensive in Ukraine: global factors
Fuel price forecast: what to expect in August and September

Fuel prices in Ukraine: what lies ahead for motorists this summer

Fuel prices in Ukraine this summer may hold a surprise. While experts are forecasting a temporary drop in petrol and diesel prices in June, global instability and the Middle East crisis are already setting the stage for an autumn price surge. Find out how the harvest season and geopolitics will affect prices at petrol stations by the end of August

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BUY

The global fuel market remains extremely volatile. The complex geopolitical situation and growing tensions in the Middle East are having a direct impact on oil prices. Against the backdrop of these global developments, Ukrainian motorists can expect price fluctuations at petrol stations this summer. In the short term, experts anticipate a welcome drop in petrol and diesel prices for motorists, but the situation is likely to change dramatically by the end of the summer season.

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What will happen to petrol and diesel prices in June and July

At the start of summer, the situation at Ukrainian petrol stations looks set to be relatively favourable for consumers. According to Dmytro Leushkin, founder of the Prime group of companies and a fuel expert, speaking on Vecher.LIVE, fuel prices may fall in June. The moderate and stable situation is likely to continue throughout July.

However, experts are urging drivers to keep an eye on the news, as the situation on the global energy market remains highly volatile. Any international events could instantly affect the price of oil, and consequently, prices at Ukrainian petrol stations.

“We live in a very volatile market, in a very volatile world. One morning Mr Trump might be negotiating peace, and the next we see military aircraft flying to the Middle East. So everything can be turned upside down,” notes Dmytro Leushkin.

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Why is fuel getting more expensive in Ukraine: global factors

The main reason for price spikes lies beyond our country’s borders. Geopolitical risks make any long-term forecasts regarding fuel prices rather tentative. Ukraine, being fully integrated into the European fuel market, reacts sensitively to global trends.

Every escalation of conflict in oil-producing regions, sanctions or sudden political decisions by world leaders inevitably affect the final cost of every litre of petrol. Under such conditions, the market situation can change in a matter of days, rendering any previous analysts’ calculations obsolete.

Fuel price forecast: what to expect in August and September

While the first half of summer promises a lull in prices, as autumn approaches drivers should prepare for potential financial difficulties. The fuel market may face a new, quite significant wave of price rises.

The end of summer and the start of autumn are traditionally a difficult period. August and September are peak periods for the fuel market across the Northern Hemisphere. During this period, the harvest begins in earnest and agricultural work intensifies. The ‘peak season’ in logistics begins, causing a sharp rise in the consumption of diesel and petrol.

It is precisely this seasonal rise in demand, combined with the unpredictable geopolitical situation, that creates enormous pressure on the market and, as a result, pushes prices up. Drivers should therefore be prepared for the fact that the comfortable June prices will be nothing more than a memory by the autumn season.

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asked questions

Why are petrol and diesel prices rising in Ukraine?

Several key factors influence fuel prices at Ukrainian petrol stations, most of which depend on external market conditions. First and foremost, these are global oil prices, to which the prices of oil imported into the country are directly linked. Exchange rates play a significant role: as purchases abroad are made in dollars and euros, any weakening of the hryvnia automatically leads to higher fuel prices on the domestic market. Furthermore, government taxes account for a significant portion of the final price, and the delivery of petroleum products from EU countries by road and rail is considerably more expensive than the usual pre-war routes.

What determines the price per litre of fuel at a petrol station?

When will fuel prices fall?