Flooding in Ukraine due to rising sea levels: what scientists are predicting

Global sea level rise is already a reality, and scientists predict that this process will continue to accelerate. Southern regions of Ukraine are at risk: in the worst-case scenario, an area comparable in size to an entire region could end up underwater. Learn more about the extent of potential flooding and which regions will be hit hardest

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Global sea levels continue to rise, and this process directly affects Ukraine’s southern regions. RBC-Ukraine recently reported on a study that assesses the extent of potential flooding in Ukrainian territories due to global climate change.

How many hectares will be at risk, which regions will be affected the most, and under what conditions will the worst-case scenario unfold—we’ll cover all this in the article below.

How much has the global sea level risen over the past century?

Over the past three millennia, sea levels remained relatively stable—fluctuations did not exceed 0.2 mm per year. However, the situation changed dramatically in the 20th century. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, between 1901 and 2010, the average global sea level rose by nearly 20 cm. The rate of this rise continues to accelerate, prompting Ukrainian researchers to examine the potential consequences for the country.

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“Water Is Near” Study: Flooded Areas in Ukraine by 2100

A framework study titled “Water Is Near,” prepared by experts from the climate department of the non-governmental organization “Ekodia,” assesses the potential impact of rising sea levels on the coastal areas of Ukraine’s southern regions. The study’s findings were presented by the organization’s expert, Sofya Sadogurska.

According to the experts’ findings, if current greenhouse gas emission levels persist, Ukraine could lose approximately 650,000 hectares of territory to flooding by 2100. When additional natural factors—such as storms—are taken into account, this figure rises to 1 million hectares. For comparison: this area is roughly equal to the area of the Ternopil region.

Earlier, we wrote about interesting cities and routes in Ukraine.

Which regions of Ukraine will be most affected by rising sea levels?

According to researchers’ estimates, three regions will be most affected by rising water levels:

• Kherson region;
• Odesa region;
• Crimea.

These territories are located along the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas and have the lowest coastal zones, which are vulnerable to flooding.

Worst-case scenario: under what conditions will these predictions become reality?

Scientists cite global warming exceeding 4°C by the end of this century as a critical threshold. It is under this scenario that the coastal areas of southern Ukraine risk experiencing the most severe flooding. At the same time, these forecasts are not inevitable—the extent of the actual consequences depends directly on whether the global community succeeds in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.

Global climate threats are just one of the challenges Ukrainians face today. Insurance covering war risks, available on the Visit Ukraine portal, will help protect you and your loved ones from unforeseen circumstances.

Purchase a policy online and ensure you have financial support under any circumstances!

Reminder! In our previous article, we reported that the aviation industry will lose $100 billion due to the war in the Middle East.

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