Ukraine emphasizes that the autumn-winter period of 2023-2024 may be more difficult than last year's blackouts. Find out how russia can attack the Ukrainian energy sector and how many missiles the enemy has left

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Over the past two months, Ukrainian authorities have been actively emphasizing that this fall and winter could be even more difficult than last season. They attribute this to the fact that Ukraine's energy sector has suffered significant losses and the infrastructure has not been fully restored. Therefore, russian missile attacks on the energy sector could lead to even more severe consequences, including prolonged power outages, lack of heating, and complete blackouts. 

At the same time, the government believes that there will be no repetition of attacks with the simultaneous launch of 70-100 missiles at various Ukrainian targets, as the russians realize that they cannot reach all targets with missiles, and instead will only deplete their stockpiles, as was the case last year.

How many and what kind of missiles does russia have left?

Currently, moscow has about 585 missiles with a range of more than 500 kilometers. Major General Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, told RBK-Ukraine. These are the missiles the enemy most often attacks Ukraine with, in particular

- about 270 units of Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles

- about 75 "Kinzhal"

- about 140 "Kalibr" missiles;

- about 100 X-101, X-555 and X-55 missiles with warheads;

- and about 150 old X-22 missiles.

How many missiles are produced in russia every month?

Unfortunately, since the beginning of the spring of 2023, russia has been actively working not only to accumulate missile stockpiles but also to increase their production. According to Skibitsky, russia has managed to establish a process and start producing many times more missiles than in the pre-war period. Thus, in August, russia plans to produce 118 missiles, including Kinzhal, Iskander-M, Iskander-K, Kalibr, X-101 and modified X-22 (X-32).

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"In addition to the six Kinzhal, the russians planned to produce a total of 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 12 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr, and about 40 X-101s in August. In addition, they are improving the X-22 cruise missiles, the redesigned models have a new index - X-32. According to our data, the russians can supply no more than 10 units of such modernized missiles per month," Skibitsky said. 

At the same time, he clarified that the actual production of some missile models lags behind their plans. In particular, this applies to X-101 missiles, because russia critically lacks foreign components for the production of these weapons. Therefore, the enemy will be forced to adjust its plans and tactics of shelling, because with the current production volume, it is impossible to fire 200 missiles at Ukraine's infrastructure for several months in a row.

When russia will start shelling the energy sector: expectations of the Ukrainian authorities

According to Skibitsky's forecasts, the beginning of russian attacks on the energy sector could be in late September or October. After all, the enemy has already begun reconnaissance of Ukrainian energy facilities, looking for their vulnerabilities and the location of air defense systems to map out optimal routes for launches.

In addition, according to the spokesman for the Air Force Command, Colonel Yuriy Ignatov, in the event of energy attacks, russia will focus on combined attacks using a large number of attack UAVs - "Shaheds." According to the GUR, russia is actively working to increase its own production of these drones. And the stockpile of UAVs allows them to be used more often and in greater numbers than missiles.

However, the Ukrainian air defense system has also been significantly modified compared to last year. In particular, Ukraine's arsenal has been replenished with a large number of the latest air defense systems from Western partners. Therefore, despite russia's increased production of missiles and drones, Ukraine's air defense system is better prepared for potential massive attacks than last year.

We will withstand and win!

We remind you! During the summer of 2023, the dynamics of entry into Ukraine increased significantly. Some citizens have returned home for a while, while others want to stay. We will tell you how Ukrainians justify their return from abroad and what changes they have noticed at home in our previous article.

Photo: Oleksii Chumachenko/dpa/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/picture alliance

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