Oil prices have skyrocketed: how will this affect fuel in Ukraine?

Global oil prices have risen sharply amid tensions in the Middle East and the threat of supply disruptions. Experts warn that rising raw material prices could quickly affect the cost of petrol and diesel in Ukraine, as the country depends on fuel imports. Find out how fuel prices at Ukrainian petrol stations may change and what drivers can expect in the near future

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Global oil prices have risen sharply amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The market is reacting to the threat of supply disruptions, and analysts warn that Ukrainian drivers may soon feel the effects of this surge.

Oil prices have risen to their highest level in several years

At the opening of trading in Asia on 9 March, the price of Brent crude oil initially exceeded $110 per barrel and then reached around $119.5. This is the highest level since June 2022.

Futures for May delivery on the London ICE exchange rose by about 25% and exceeded $116 per barrel. Overall, oil has risen in price by more than 50% since the beginning of last week.

The main reason for the price jump was fears of a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil trade. About 20% of all maritime shipments of raw materials pass through this strait. If restrictions are imposed, the market could face a serious shortage.

For comparison, oil prices only reached higher levels in March 2022, when prices exceeded $139 per barrel. The absolute record was set in 2008 — over $147.

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G7 countries may open strategic reserves

Against the backdrop of sharp price increases, the finance ministers of the G7 countries are discussing the possibility of using strategic oil reserves.

According to international media reports, the option of releasing 300-400 million barrels from reserves is being considered. This is approximately a quarter of the world's strategic reserves held by the countries of the International Energy Agency.

In total, IEA countries have about 1.24 billion barrels of government reserves and another 600 million barrels of industrial reserves. These resources could temporarily stabilise the market and reduce pressure on prices.

This reserve system was created back in 1974 after the Arab oil embargo, when many Western countries faced acute fuel shortages.

How rising oil prices affect Ukraine

Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on imports of petroleum products, so changes in the global market are quickly reflected in the cost of fuel within the country.

In recent days, fuel shipments arriving on the Ukrainian market have already been priced at the new rates. Whereas previously part of the price increase was considered a speculative market reaction, now we are talking about a real increase in the purchase cost.

According to fuel market experts, diesel fuel may be affected by the strongest price increases.

This is due to the fact that Europe is experiencing a shortage of diesel and is actively importing it, including from the Middle East.

How much could fuel cost

According to experts, by the end of the week, the cost of diesel fuel at Ukrainian petrol stations could rise to around 80 hryvnia per litre.

If high oil prices persist, the price may approach 90 hryvnia per litre. Petrol may become less expensive, as the European petrol market is currently in surplus.

A possible benchmark for petrol is around 70 hryvnia per litre.

What are the current fuel prices?

According to analytical services, the average fuel prices in Ukraine as of 9 March are as follows:

▪️ A-95 premium petrol — about 72.6 hryvnia per litre

▪️ A-95 petrol — about 69 hryvnia

▪️ A-92 petrol — about 66 hryvnia

▪️ Diesel fuel — about 71.6 hryvnia per litre

What measures is the government preparing?

The government is already discussing possible steps to stabilise the situation on the fuel market.

Coordination is being carried out between the relevant ministries and energy companies. Among the main tasks are increasing fuel imports and controlling market prices.

The Antimonopoly Committee and relevant services must also strengthen their monitoring of petrol station operators to prevent unjustified price increases.

Particular attention is being paid to ensuring fuel supplies to the agricultural sector and public transport, as these sectors are most sensitive to sharp price fluctuations.

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