Are flights in Europe at risk? Planes are running out of fuel, and the situation is only getting worse

European aviation is on the brink of a major crisis. Conflicts in the Middle East have caused a severe fuel shortage, threatening widespread flight cancellations and a sharp rise in ticket prices. The summer vacations of millions of tourists are now seriously at risk. Find out what passengers can expect this year

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European tourists may have to drastically rethink their summer vacation plans. Airlines are preparing for possible widespread flight cancellations amid a rapidly growing aviation fuel shortage. According to Reuters, the situation in the energy market is becoming critical, and the industry faces serious challenges in the near future.

Why is there a shortage of jet fuel in Europe?

The current crisis has been brewing for a long time, but it has escalated due to a confluence of several unfavorable factors. Over the past 25 years, the European oil and gas industry has significantly reduced production volumes due to falling domestic demand, foreign competition, and strict environmental regulations. As a result, Europe has become heavily dependent on imports: the region purchases jet fuel in much larger volumes than any other type of fuel, with about 75% of these supplies traditionally coming from the Middle East.

Over the past four years, this vulnerable system has suffered two devastating blows. First, Europe faced a sharp loss of Russian gas supplies in 2022. Then came the closure of the critically important Strait of Hormuz due to a conflict with Iran involving the U.S. and Israel. Against this backdrop, Asian refineries, which receive up to 60% of their crude oil from the Middle East, were forced to sharply cut production. An acute global shortage emerged, and now Europe is forced to compete fiercely with the Asian market for scarce volumes.

This struggle has already led to price shocks: on March 18, jet fuel prices in Europe reached a historic high of $1,800 per ton, after which they retreated slightly to around $1,450.

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Will flights to Europe be canceled this summer?

The outlook remains bleak. Aviation kerosene stocks are rapidly dwindling, and with the final shipments from the Middle East now complete, finding new supplies has become an extremely difficult and costly task. The Airports Council International Europe warned last week that a systemic fuel shortage in the region could occur as soon as three weeks from now. Airlines and oil importers are left with only two difficult options: either overpay for fuel while competing with Asia, or cut back on consumption, which means canceling flights.

Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr has already openly stated that flight suspensions may be inevitable, as the shortage will primarily affect major airports. The airline has even developed a contingency plan, which includes reducing capacity by up to 5% and retiring older, less fuel-efficient aircraft ahead of schedule.

Why are airfares rising, and what can we expect next?

Fuel price hedging (insurance) only partially helps airlines.

For example, Lufthansa has hedged its fuel supplies for the next 24 months and feels secure for now. Meanwhile, the British low-cost carrier EasyJet has a safety cushion only for the coming months. By the end of summer, these hedges will begin to run out, prompting the company to already warn passengers of a possible increase in ticket prices.

Read also: How to buy cheap airline tickets: a few tricks to save money

To avoid a collapse, the Association of European Airlines has appealed to EU authorities for urgent intervention. Carriers are demanding monitoring of supplies at the pan-European level and the abolition of certain sector-specific taxes. In the long term, government incentives for the production of low-carbon and environmentally friendly aviation fuel (SAF), as well as the implementation of carbon capture technologies, could save the situation. However, this takes time. At the moment, as the authors of the investigation note, the short-term outlook for both European airlines and ordinary travelers looks quite bleak.

This approach is particularly relevant for popular tourist destinations. And this is where comprehensive platforms come in handy—for example, through Visit Ukraine, you can not only find flights but also immediately explore alternatives (trains, buses), which are sometimes cheaper and more flexible.

Reminder! Summer travel in Europe is becoming even more affordable: a popular budget airline has announced the launch of new flights from Romania to popular coastal resorts. Tickets priced at around $30 open up new opportunities for tourists looking for budget routes to the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas. Find out which destinations the airline is adding and when flights will begin.

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