They will not stop in winter, and spring will be decisive: what predictions the military give regarding the offensive of the AFU
The Ukrainian climate is smoothly moving the country into the cold season. In a short while the country will be covered with rain and later with snow. Find out more about how this will affect the situation on the battlefield and what to expect after the cold weather
The Ukrainian military has been conducting offensive operations in various parts of the frontline for about four months now. However, winter is coming to Ukraine, which may make its own adjustments to the war. Here is what the Ukrainian military says about the readiness of the Armed Forces for the winter period and what they expect in the spring of 2024.
The situation at the front is not easy, to put it mildly. Ukraine continues to wage a war of attrition against the russian occupiers, who have been preparing for the Armed Forces' attacks and strengthening their positions for a long time.
According to experts, "the ability of Ukrainian soldiers to master Western technology quickly led to misplaced optimism that the time required to create cohesive combat units could be reduced."
However, Ukrainian units have reverted to a style of warfare that is more familiar to them. For example, they are using small groups of mobile infantry to test the russian defense that has been reinforced. This is also in line with the current circumstances, as the russians are trying to control positions with drones and attacking Ukrainian forces with kamikaze drones.
The same information was confirmed by the commander of the Tavria operational and strategic grouping of troops, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, in an interview with CNN.
"Neither the enemy nor we mostly use companies, battalions or brigades, but assault units. Groups of 10-15 people," he said, adding that Ukraine is not ready to risk the casualties that an ambitious mechanized offensive could bring.
Is Ukraine ready to attack in winter?
Despite statements by U.S. officials that offensive operations on the front lines in Ukraine are possible for another month and a half to two months, and then the weather will make it difficult, a Ukrainian officer said that this style of warfare would be less affected by the weather in the winter months.
"Weather can be a serious obstacle during the offensive. But given the way we are moving forward, and we are basically moving forward without the use of equipment, I don't think it will have a big impact on this stage of the counteroffensive," Tarnavsky explained.
Moreover, even the US presidential administration recognizes that the time left before the cold weather is "on our side."
In addition, Ukraine's chief intelligence officer, Kyrylo Budanov, recently told Reuters that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive will continue after the onset of cold and wet weather, even if it becomes more difficult to fight.
Given similar comments by Ukrainian generals, it can be assumed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to attack the occupiers' positions, regardless of the weather conditions. This plan is probably aimed at preventing the russians from preparing their fortifications even better for the spring, when the fighting may intensify.
Spring 2024 will be an important phase of the war
No matter how you slice it, the winter season always slows down the movement of armored vehicles and offensive operations, even if they are conducted exclusively with the help of ground forces.
In winter, the Ukrainian command is likely to take advantage of the moment to strengthen the army. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive the most powerful reinforcement in the form of Western aviation, which is expected to arrive at the Air Force in early 2024.
A similar opinion is also expressed by military experts who believe that spring will be a potentially important phase of this war. This is when Ukraine will start using F-16s and possibly other Western weapons. This may include long-range missiles such as ATACMS and Taurus, which Ukraine is waiting for from the United States and Germany.
Western media note that in 2024, many factors will influence the future of russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.
We remind you! Ukrainian nature and geography have repeatedly helped the Armed Forces of Ukraine gain an advantage on the battlefield. Read here to find out how fields, swamps, forests, mountains, and rivers are fighting together with the army against the russians.
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