Prices will soar by 20-40%! Which city could become the leader in real estate price growth after the war?

The housing market is already preparing for post-war recovery, and experts are looking for cities where prices are likely to rise the fastest. One Ukrainian metropolis combines economy, port infrastructure and limited supply, creating ideal conditions for a jump in square metre prices. Find out where real estate could rise in price by tens of per cent immediately after the end of the war

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The Ukrainian real estate market is already beginning to form future growth points. Despite the war, prices in the primary market in some cities are not falling, but gradually strengthening. Analysts consider these locations to be potential leaders in sharp increases in housing prices after the end of hostilities. Odessa is named as one of the main candidates. This is stated in the article ‘RBC-Ukraine’.

Huge accumulated demand

After the war, the country will face a large-scale population movement. Some people will return home, but a significant number of Ukrainians will choose more economically active and safer regions. This will create sustained pressure on the housing market.

The problem lies not so much in the number of buyers as in the ability to quickly build new apartments. Before the full-scale invasion, it took Ukraine almost ten years to reach a construction volume of about 8-11 million square metres per year. Currently, the industry is operating at about 60% of its former level, and the shortage of workers exceeds a third of the workforce.

After the war, competition for specialists will intensify — infrastructure, industry and housing will all need to be rebuilt at the same time. This means that supply will grow slowly and the housing shortage will persist for years.

Odessa's economy will be a driver of growth

The key factor remains not only the city's resort status, but also its role in the country's economy. Before the war, more than 70% of Ukrainian exports passed through seaports, and the restoration of maritime trade will be one of the state's priorities.

The revitalisation of port logistics will inevitably lead to the development of the banking sector, service companies and export-related businesses. Growth in employment and household income directly affects the cost per square metre, as it increases effective demand.

Limited supply by the sea

Odessa remains a rare type of city that combines a business centre and a resort. At the same time, land plots near the coast are actually limited. New projects in such locations are rare, which means that each new apartment automatically receives a price premium.

Such markets do not grow gradually, but in leaps and bounds — when demand for a limited number of properties increases sharply.

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What global experience shows

After military conflicts, strategic coastal regions often become more expensive faster than the rest of the country. In the Balkan countries, after stabilisation, real estate prices near the sea rose sharply, and in Israel, periods of reduced military risks were accompanied by accelerated growth in housing costs in key cities.

The economic logic is the same: capital returns to where security, business and limited supply converge.

Price forecast

Provided there is stable peace, Odessa could become one of the fastest-growing markets in the country. Already in the first six months after the end of the war, housing prices could rise by 20-40%.

Within two years, the increase could approach 80%, and in the premium segment near the sea, it could actually double within a few years. Even a conservative scenario predicts growth of at least one-third.

The main reason is not a lack of buyers, but the inability to quickly eliminate the accumulated housing shortage.

In the context of increased rental costs and market activity, the issue of property protection becomes even more relevant. If you own real estate, it is worth taking care of its insurance in advance. On Visit Ukraine, you can take out express real estate insurance online — this allows you to minimize financial risks in case of damage or force majeure situations.

Reminder! In 2025, demand for rental housing increased in the western regions of Ukraine amid a decline in supply. Find out where the highest prices are, in which regions the number of apartments has decreased the most, and what risks are emerging in the market.

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