Ukrainians are leaving one of the EU countries in droves: around 75% of refugees have already left

Whilst millions of Ukrainians are settling in specific parts of Europe, nearly 75% of migrants have already left certain EU countries. Meanwhile, demographers are sounding the alarm, predicting a second wave of migration. Find out which European country Ukrainians are leaving en masse and why experts believe that 80% of citizens may remain abroad permanently

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Ukrainians’ attitudes towards migration continue to shift. Although the overall number of displaced persons abroad remains high, some countries are already recording a mass exodus of Ukrainian citizens from their territories.

From which EU country are Ukrainians leaving en masse?

Since the start of the full-scale war, the majority of Ukrainian refugees who initially sought refuge in Estonia have decided to leave the country. According to Annelie Kolk, Estonia’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Ukraine, in an interview with Glavkom, Estonia took in 89,000 Ukrainians at the start of the invasion. However, as of today, only 25,000 Ukrainian citizens remain in the country.

Although the diplomat did not specify the exact reasons for such a large-scale exodus, she emphasised that the Estonian government is doing everything possible to ensure adequate living conditions for refugees. One striking example of this support was the opening of a special school for Ukrainian children. Teaching there follows a unique curriculum that combines Estonian and Ukrainian educational programmes. This is done to ensure that children do not lose touch with their native language, culture and history, and can continue their education without academic setbacks upon returning home.

How many Ukrainian refugees are there in Europe now?

As of 2026, the demographic situation remains complex. Ella Libanova, Director of the M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, notes that there are currently around 4.4 million Ukrainians in European Union countries, and this figure continues to rise gradually. In addition, around 700,000 people have emigrated to countries outside the EU.

“The bulk of them left in the first half of 2022. Very few have returned. Fewer than a million. Of those who left, not on business trips or holidays. And with every month of the conflict’s active phase, fewer and fewer people will return to us, because they are adapting there,” states Libanova.

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Will Ukrainians return home after the war ends?

Global experience of similar conflicts offers rather grim forecasts. Archimandrite Kirill Govorun, director of the Huffington Institute in Los Angeles, citing research conducted jointly with experts from the UN and Georgetown University, warns that Ukraine must be prepared for the vast majority of its citizens to remain abroad.

According to global average statistics, when the middle class and people capable of adapting to a new environment are forced to leave a country as a result of hostilities, the same scenario is observed: initially, 80–90% of refugees declare their firm intention to return home, yet in practice, around 80% of them end up staying abroad permanently.

Will there be a new wave of migration from Ukraine?

Apart from the problem of refugees not returning, Ukraine faces another demographic blow — a second wave of population migration. Experts link this to the forthcoming lifting of martial law and the possible reopening of borders.

Ella Libanova warns that the majority of those who have left are young women with children. During their time abroad, many of them have managed to find work, integrate into society and settle into a new life. If families have not broken up during this time, there is a very high probability that, once exit restrictions are lifted, it will not be the women who return to post-war Ukraine, but rather the men who will travel en masse to join their families in other countries.

Immigration matters often require a personalized approach, so it may be helpful for Ukrainians to consult with immigration lawyers in advance—particularly through services like Visit Ukraine—to avoid mistakes when changing their status.

Reminder! In the first quarter of 2026, the number of new asylum applications from Ukrainians in the EU fell by 57%. Whilst some European countries are discussing strict entry restrictions for foreigners, others continue to offer full support. Find out where refugees have stopped going and where protection status has been extended until 2027.

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