Food Prices in Ukraine in the Summer of 2026: What Will Get Cheaper, What Will Get More Expensive, and What to Expect from the Grocery Basket

Summer 2026 will bring Ukrainians a mixed picture of prices: some food items will become cheaper due to the season, while others will rise because of frosts and energy costs. Find out what will happen to prices for vegetables, fruits, bread, meat, and dairy products according to analysts’ forecasts

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Before discussing summer forecasts, it is important to note that, as of the end of May 2026, the total cost of a typical Ukrainian food basket had already risen by 9.5% compared to the same period last year. It is from this level that analysts are projecting three possible scenarios — which they detailed to RBC-Ukraine.

Read also: Poverty levels in the EU in 2026 — which countries are leading and which are lagging?

Fruit at risk: frosts hit apricots and peaches

Spring frosts dealt a serious blow to certain segments of the fruit market. Apricots, peaches, early cherries, and strawberries are at risk. Experts warn of a possible shortage of domestic apricots and peaches, and their cost will largely depend on import volumes and prices.

Against this backdrop, an interesting market trend has taken hold: imported bananas have already displaced domestic apples from the shopping baskets of many Ukrainians — they are nearly half the price. The reason is purely agronomic: bananas are harvested up to 30 times a year worldwide, while apples in Ukraine are harvested only once, which accounts for this price difference.

Borscht ingredients and vegetables: seasonal price drops are happening, but there won’t be a collapse

The basic set of borscht ingredients currently costs 15–17% less than last year — and this is a noticeable relief for households. The price of potatoes has fallen by an average of 20%. New potatoes started at 45 UAH/kg, but in a month or a month and a half, they will begin to drop rapidly as the new harvest comes in.

Cucumbers and tomatoes will be most affordable from the second half of June through the end of August. However, there will be no price collapse like in the pre-war years: expensive fuel and high energy costs for producers are keeping production costs at a level that prevents prices from falling below last year’s figures.

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Bread prices will rise: two scenarios — from 5% to 25%

The baking industry is suffering from energy pressures. The constant use of generators during summer power outages significantly increases the cost of production, and this factor is here to stay.

Analysts are considering two scenarios. Under the optimistic scenario, bread prices will rise by up to 5% over the next 3–4 months — that is approximately 1–1.5 UAH per loaf. The pessimistic scenario predicts a rise in the cost of baked goods by as much as 25% by fall — should the energy crisis intensify.

Dairy products, eggs, and meat: moderate stability with seasonal discounts

Relative stability is expected in the dairy market. A pack of butter will remain around 60 UAH in the summer, and a bottle of 2.5% milk will cost up to 50 UAH.

Eggs and meat are seeing seasonal price drops—thanks to lower feed costs during the warmer months and competition from private farms that actively supply products to the market in the summer.

Groceries: sugar is getting cheaper, but oil and buckwheat are not

The picture in the grocery segment is mixed. Sugar remains 10% cheaper than last year — good news for most households. In contrast, sunflower oil is becoming more expensive due to depleted seed stocks, and buckwheat is rising in price due to increased packaging costs.

Fish: no sharp fluctuations expected

The fish market remains relatively stable. Hake costs 189–199 UAH/kg, lightly salted herring — about 235 UAH/kg. A pleasant exception is chilled trout: a steak has dropped in price to 849 UAH/kg thanks to active fishing in Norway.

Three scenarios for the summer grocery bill: optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic

Analysts have outlined three possible scenarios for the price situation in the summer of 2026:

1. Optimistic: the increase in the average grocery bill will be limited to 5–8%. Seasonal vegetables and market competition will keep inflation in check.

2. Base: food prices will be 8–15% higher than last year. Seasonal vegetables will help, but logistics costs and electricity prices will prevent the overall price level from falling below last year’s figures.

3. Pessimistic: a 15–25% increase in food costs—in the event of a worsening energy crisis and new weather anomalies, such as spring frosts.

We remind you! Food prices in Ukraine are increasingly approaching European levels, yet Ukrainians’ incomes remain significantly lower. Read why food prices are rising rapidly, which products already cost as much as in the EU, and what to expect from prices in 2026.

Photo: rawpixel.com / Freepik

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