Fuel shortage in Ukraine in 2026: risks, forecasts, and possible solutions

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East is affecting the global oil market, and Ukraine is not immune to these developments. Experts and members of parliament are already expressing concern about possible fuel supply disruptions in the near future. Learn more about the risks of fuel shortages in Ukraine, analysts' forecasts, and measures proposed to stabilize the market

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The escalating situation in the Middle East poses new challenges for the global energy market. Ukraine, which is heavily dependent on oil imports, may feel the effects of geopolitical instability in the coming months.

What factors threaten the stability of fuel supplies, why the Strait of Hormuz has become the focus of analysts' attention, and what needs to be done to protect the domestic market — we discuss these issues below.

The Strait of Hormuz and the threat to global oil supplies

The conflict in the Middle East continues unabated, and contrary to initial predictions, a diplomatic settlement or quick military solution has not been achieved. This uncertainty is growing, and among the most alarming scenarios is the possible physical closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, in particular through mining. This strait is a key oil and gas transit artery through which a significant portion of global hydrocarbon exports pass.

The risks of blocking the strait were highlighted by Danylo Getmantsev, chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy. He referred to the forecast of one of the largest American banks, JPMorgan Chase & Co. According to the estimates of analysts at this financial institution, if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the main oil-producing countries of the Middle East will be able to maintain production levels for no longer than 25 days. After that, production will have to be significantly reduced, which will have serious consequences for the global energy sector.

Is Ukraine facing a fuel shortage in April?

Danylo Getmantsev warned that disruptions in oil supplies from the Middle East could lead not only to speculative price increases but also to a real fuel shortage. According to estimates by experts in the Ukrainian fuel market, the shortage of fuel and lubricants in Ukraine could become noticeable as early as April. This is particularly critical in view of two factors: the defense forces' need for uninterrupted daily supplies and the start of the sowing campaign, for which farmers need significant amounts of fuel.

At the same time, not all experts share this concern. Analyst Serhiy Kuyun considers the scenario of a shortage to be unrealistic. According to him, oil continues to be produced worldwide and will continue to be produced in the future — the question is solely about price. Kuyun noted that the current price increase has raised the cost of oil to only $82 per barrel, rather than the $100–150 predicted by pessimistic forecasts. The global market has sufficient volumes of raw materials, and the current price increase, according to the expert, is more a reaction to geopolitical tensions than a reflection of a real shortage of resources.

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What measures are being proposed to stabilize Ukraine's fuel market?

Danylo Getmantsev outlined a series of steps to reduce risks for the domestic market. First of all, this involves encouraging key market players, in particular Ukrnafta, to enter into long-term contracts for the supply of petroleum products. Long-term agreements allow for the fixing of supply conditions and reduce dependence on short-term price fluctuations on world markets.

Another proposal is to explore the possibility of creating a strategic reserve of petroleum products in neighboring partner countries. Such a mechanism would ensure a stable supply of fuel even in the event of temporary disruptions at the global level. In addition, Getmantsev stressed the need for the government to hold broad consultations with companies supplying petroleum products to Ukraine, as well as preliminary negotiations with international partners to reserve the necessary volumes. In his opinion, it is unacceptable to ignore new risks, and a timely response is the only way to prevent problems in the domestic market.

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